Crimea as a bargaining chip: Trump’s new idea for concessions to Russia
18 March 08:52
The administration of US President Donald Trump is considering recognizing Crimea as Russian territory as part of a future agreement to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. This was reported by Semafor, citing two sources familiar with the situation, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to the sources, administration officials are also discussing the possibility of appealing to the UN to recognize the peninsula as Russian territory. This position is in line with the vision of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has long considered Crimea a part of his state.
Crimea as a bargaining chip
The Trump administration’s willingness to consider such options became known ahead of a phone call between Trump and Putin scheduled for Tuesday to discuss a potential 30-day ceasefire agreement. On Sunday evening, Trump told reporters that the negotiators had already discussed “the distribution of certain assets.”
The US president has not officially made any decisions, and possible steps on Crimea are just one of many options being considered by the administration in its search for ways to end the war.
The White House refused to comment on the situation. After the publication of this information, National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said that the administration “has not made such a commitment and will not negotiate through the media.”
“Only two weeks ago, the positions of Ukraine and Russia on a ceasefire agreement were very far apart, and now we are closer to an agreement thanks to President Trump’s leadership. The goal remains the same: to stop the killing and find a peaceful solution to this conflict,”
– Hughes added.
Representatives of the Trump administration openly talk about the need for Ukraine’s territorial concessions to Russia to end the three-year war, and the US President himself has previously expressed his willingness to consider Crimea as part of Russia. However, since Trump took office, his advisors have not publicly disclosed many details about what they might offer Putin.
“The Ukrainians have suffered a lot, and their people have suffered a lot, and after that it’s hard to even talk about concessions. But this is the only way to end the war and prevent further suffering,”
– U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week.
The U.S. move to officially recognize Crimea, which Russia occupied in 2014, as Russian territory is likely to face significant resistance from Europe and Ukraine. Ukraine and most of the international community recognize Crimea as Ukrainian, despite Russia’s occupation of the peninsula.
Trump’s position on Crimea
Trump first proposed the possibility of recognizing Crimea as Russian territory several years before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. During the 2016 election campaign and later during his first term, the president repeatedly stated that he would “consider” recognizing the peninsula as Russian.
“The people of Crimea, from what I’ve heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were. And that has to be taken into account,”
– Trump said during an interview in 2018.
After Trump’s re-election as President of the United States, one of his advisors, Brian Lanza, said that Ukraine should forget about Crimea. Trump’s entourage, however, was quick to deny this statement and said that Lanza could not speak for him.
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Trump’s position on Ukraine
During the election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that he would stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. This deadline has already passed. After that, Trump’s entourage talked about 100 days within which he wanted to reach some kind of agreement. Of these, 57 days have already passed. During this time, the US presidential administration has established contact with the Kremlin, and American envoys have flown to Moscow several times and met with Russians in other countries. A meeting between Ukraine and the United States also took place.
During the election, the media spread the so-called “Trump Plan”. The idea was that the United States would use its influence to stop the war and maintain the status quo. To do this, Trump would force Putin and Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table. If Putin does not agree to negotiate, the United States will give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win on the battlefield. If Zelenskyy refuses to negotiate, the United States will completely stop helping Ukraine.
This plan, in its various variations, included a provision that Russia would retain the territories it temporarily occupied and that Ukraine would not join NATO.
However, later Trump seemed to “forget” about this plan. In particular, he voiced scenarios in which he would force Russia to capitulate due to the decline in world oil prices.
Meanwhile, in exchange for military support, Trump demanded $500 billion worth of rare earth metals from Ukraine. He said that the US should have access to Ukraine’s natural resources, regardless of whether Kyiv manages to reach a peace deal with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasizes that in exchange for this agreement, the Ukrainian side is not given any security guarantees.
Negotiations between the United States and Russia
on February 18, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian Assistant Prime Minister Yuri Ushakov meet in Saudi Arabia with an American delegation, represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Volz, and Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff.
After the talks, the US State Department reported that the delegations agreed to “eliminate irritants” in bilateral relations and continue to work on preparing talks on Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The two sides also agreed to appoint high-level groups for further talks on Ukraine.
Jackie Heinrich, a Fox News correspondent at the White House, reported that the United States and Russia discussed a three-stage peace plan for Ukraine, which consists of the following stages
- A ceasefire.
- Holding elections in Ukraine.
- Conclusion of a peace agreement.
on February 27, negotiations between the Americans and Russians continued in Istanbul. According to the Russian side, they discussed the normalization of diplomatic relations. The Kremlin also allegedly demanded the return of 6 properties that had been seized from Russians in the United States in 2016-2018, and also proposed to resume air travel.
on March 13, Putin met in Moscow with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. The parties have not yet made any statements about the results of this meeting, except for the words of Trump’s national security adviser Mike Volz that there are grounds for cautious optimism.
Trump’s proposals to Putin
According to inaccurate information from former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul(he used the word “allegedly”), Trump offered Putin (McFaul’s wording is retained)
- ukrainian territory;
- ukraine’s non-membership in NATO;
- no American soldiers in Ukraine;
- withdrawal of American soldiers from Europe, including from frontline countries;
- easing of sanctions.
Putin, according to McFaul, has not offered anything yet.
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