Hungarian Leader Orbán Tones Down Anti-Ukrainian Rhetoric Ahead of Defeat: What Lies Behind It
12 April 20:12
Hungary is voting in parliamentary elections, and the way these elections are unfolding provides sufficient grounds for confidence: the Orbán era has come to an end.
This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian", citing European Truth.
Social media and the news are filled with photos from polling stations in Budapest showing massive lines (and in the capital and surrounding areas, the vast majority supports a change in leadership). And overall, the pendulum has swung against the current government: after 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s rule, voters want to put an end to it.
And the fact that turnout has risen particularly in regions sympathetic to the opposition confirms that we can speak with certainty of a defeat for Viktor Orbán and his party. The only remaining question is how wide the margin of victory will be.
And even the possibility that the opposition “Tisza” will secure two-thirds of the vote—a scenario many analysts dismissed until the very end—is now becoming increasingly realistic, though by the time of this writing, it is by no means guaranteed.
Until now, the record in Hungarian history was set by the 2002 elections, when turnout slightly exceeded 70%. It has already reached that level by 5 p.m. and will likely surpass the 75% mark by the time the polls close
The highest turnout is in and around the capital.
And although the authorities are undoubtedly also working to “rally” their voters. That is why both Orbán himself and the pro-Russian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, infamous among Ukrainians, are posting messages with hysterical undertones.
However, such a gap cannot be closed.
Hungary is heading toward a change in government.
These elections were preceded by a shameful period in Hungary’s history, when Orbán’s government became increasingly authoritarian, rapidly losing the trappings of democracy, and the term “regime” began to be widely used in Europe to describe it.
These were the years when Orbán artificially constructed an image of Ukraine as the “enemy” of the Hungarian nation.
This reached its peak during the current election campaign. In Orbán’s rhetoric, Ukraine has become the absolute evil, the absolute threat, and a force seeking to destroy Hungary, the Hungarian nation, and all of Europe, as well as, allegedly, threatening Europe with war.
Moreover, the Hungarian prime minister’s statements were so illogical that they fell apart even under the slightest scrutiny.
In his speeches, he argued that Ukraine is a failed state and that, he claimed, Europe must stop supporting it. Yet this did not prevent Orbán from claiming just two minutes later that Ukraine is so influential and powerful that it controls all European capitals, and that Zelenskyy is forcing Brussels, Paris, and Berlin to make decisions against their will.
Hungarian government officials, led by the prime minister, called Ukraine a bankrupt state with no money, but later claimed that Ukrainians were financing the Hungarian opposition.
However, Orbán’s voters in Hungary are primarily the less-educated population—those without higher education and with incomplete secondary education (a fairly large segment in Hungary)—as well as older Hungarians. Within this circle, Orbán’s self-contradictory rhetoric “resonated” quite well and did not spark controversy.
And the involvement of Russian consultants in Orbán’s campaign only cemented this trend. It is believed that the Russians were partly responsible for the regime’s senseless provocation involving the seizure of Ukrainian cash-in-transit vehicles.
Ukraine was even more prominent in the visual aspect of the campaign.
Billboards across the country were completely filled with images featuring President Zelenskyy—which is why there is a popular joke among both Hungarians and Ukrainians who follow Hungarian affairs that Zelenskyy must surely be on the ballot.
Absurdly, Orbán’s party barely advertised him at all, focusing instead on demonizing the Ukrainian leader.
And even when internal party polls a few months ago showed that this approach wasn’t working very well, Orbán’s team didn’t abandon the strategy of building the campaign around Ukraine.
That is why the Hungarian government’s attempts to “turn off” this hysteria in recent days have been particularly noticeable.
It began in the final week before the election.
All the billboards along the road from the airport into the city suddenly changed—dozens of ominous images of Zelenskyy and Madjar that greeted visitors to the Hungarian capital were suddenly replaced by a smiling photo of Orbán himself with the message that we must work together to prevent war. In other words, it was seemingly about Ukraine, but without a direct mention.
Of course, this could have been attributed to J.D. Vance’s visit (as if there were no reason to show the American vice president Zelenskyy’s face with incomprehensible slogans), but the replacement of the banners was more widespread; it is unlikely that this was the only reason.
And then, on Friday morning, something happened that hadn’t happened with Orbán in several months.
He began announcing this event the night before, promising to reveal something very important—extremely important for every Hungarian—at 7:30 a.m. The announcement was so intriguing that it caught many people’s attention; all the media were waiting for his speech. But in reality, although this speech was titled “a message to all Hungarians,” it contained absolutely nothing new. In short, Orbán used it to boast about his government’s achievements and to convince Hungarians to vote for him on that basis.
But what matters is not what was in this speech, but what was missing from it.
For the first time in a long while, Orbán did not mention Ukraine in his speech. At all.
This was truly striking.
It was also very noticeable that Orbán tried to shift his campaign rhetoric in a completely different direction. Prior to this, he had spent several months actively intimidating Hungarians by appealing to their fear of Zelenskyy. Now the prime minister has started talking about what politicians usually boast about—their achievements in office, Hungarian pensions, and gas prices lower than those of neighboring countries.
And this wasn’t just a one-off speech.
A EuroPravda correspondent also attended Orbán’s final rally, which he held in Budapest. The Hungarian capital is a “foreign” city to him, so Orbán’s team chose a small square near Buda Castle for the rally (and even that wasn’t completely full, but the cameras were positioned to film only the “packed” sections).
Here, Orbán gave a very long speech that lasted half an hour. And even in it, he tried to avoid the topic of Ukraine, mentioning it only briefly at the beginning. For Orbán’s campaign speeches, this is an incredible story. Usually, he devoted half of his speech to Ukraine and Zelenskyy.
And the usual declaration of enemies and “pinning” all sins on Ukraine—which is typical of his speeches—was completely absent.
Why did this happen? We can only guess. But it’s hard to argue that such a drastic change in campaign rhetoric and strategy just days before the election is counterproductive. It simply can’t be effective.
It is also a fact that during this campaign, Orban was constantly “searching for himself.”
Indeed, the themes of his campaign messaging changed several times over the past month (though even before that, these changes still kept Ukraine and Zelenskyy at the center of the campaign). That is why the EP previously published the assumption that the Hungarian government’s campaign headquarters understands: their campaign is ineffective, and so they are changing it—but not its essence, only the packaging.
And only just before the election did Orbán’s team attempt to shift to changing the substance as well.
But it was too late.
On Sunday, Orbán already told reporters that even in the event of a defeat, he would accept the election results. Before him, his longtime ally Zsolt Németh made the same statement—but more clearly—at a closed-door meeting with international observers in Budapest.
Now the Hungarian government must fulfill its promise in practice and peacefully hand over the power they have rightfully lost.
