Only half the potential: Ukraine’s wheat exports are lagging behind last year’s pace
31 March 17:35
During the first nine months of the 2025–2026 marketing year (July–June), Ukraine exported 9.7 million tons of wheat—about 55% of the projected volume of shipments to international markets.
This was reported by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, citing data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Such dynamics could lead to the formation of unusually large carryover grain stocks at the end of the season.
An Unusual Market Situation
According to agricultural market analysts, the current season looks unusual.
Over 75% of the marketing year, Ukraine has exported slightly more than half of its export potential.
This is approximately 25% less than during the same period of the previous season.
One of the reasons cited is the situation in Europe.
Why demand has declined
The European Union had a large wheat harvest of its own—about 144 million tons—which allowed the bloc’s countries to effectively meet domestic demand.
As a result, Ukrainian traders are forced to redirect export flows, particularly to African markets.
Current export rates
Over the past four months, the average monthly export of Ukrainian wheat has remained at around 600,000 tons.
If this trend continues, carryover grain stocks at the end of the season could reach 7 million tons.
This will be more than in the 2021/22 season, when, following the outbreak of full-scale war, the Russian blockade of ports effectively halted maritime exports.
Grain prices are rising
Amid instability in global markets, prices for food wheat at Black Sea ports are rising.
Following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, grain prices rose by $6 per ton (FOB) — to their highest level since last August.
Major buyers of Ukrainian wheat
During the first eight months of the marketing year, Ukraine exported 9.03 million tons of wheat.
The largest volumes of shipments went to:
- countries in the Mediterranean region;
- countries in Southeast Asia.
Egypt became the largest importer of Ukrainian wheat.
