Fewer beets, fewer exports: what lies ahead for the sugar industry
3 April 21:09
In the 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine may export approximately 505,000 tons of sugar, which is nearly 20% less than in the previous season.
This forecast was released by analysts at the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
The decline in exports is attributed to lower production, a reduction in beet acreage, and changes in sales geography.
Production is declining
According to estimates by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, Ukraine will produce approximately 1.3 million tons of sugar in the 2025/2026 season.
This is:
- 26.3% less than in the previous marketing year;
- 12.6% below the average for the past five years.
The main reason is a reduction in sugar beet acreage.
Less acreage, but higher yields
The area planted with sugar beets has shrunk to 199,000 hectares, which is 21.6% less than last year.
At the same time, farmers recorded an increase in yield:
- 49.3 tons per hectare,
- a figure that exceeds both last year’s result and the average for the past five years.
The total gross beet harvest is projected at 10.2 million tons.
Changes in export markets
The situation was also influenced by changes in export geography.
Following the introduction of quotas on shipments to the European Union in the 2024/2025 season, sugar exports have already fallen to 629,000 tons.
A further decline to 505,000 tons is expected in the new season.
The main export markets are:
- African countries — 32% of exports;
- the Middle East — 29%;
- the EU — only 17%.
Consumption in Ukraine is also falling
Another factor is the decline in domestic demand.
Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine consumed approximately 1.1 million tons of sugar per year.
For the 2025/2026 season, consumption is projected at around 0.9 million tons, primarily due to population decline.
Market balance
Despite the decline in production and exports, the market remains balanced.
According to estimates by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club:
- carryover stocks amount to about 620,000 tons;
- this is sufficient to fully meet domestic demand;
- Ukraine will be able to maintain exports, albeit in smaller volumes.
In the first half of the 2025/2026 season, Ukraine has already exported about 270,000 tons of sugar.
