The limits of the possible: where are the red lines of Ukrainians in peace negotiations?
7 August 2025 15:01
More than half of Ukrainians support the European-Ukrainian settlement plan, while three-quarters of the population categorically reject Russian demands. At the same time, readiness for difficult decisions is growing. This is evidenced by a recent study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
A survey of more than a thousand people from all government-controlled regions revealed a growing willingness to make painful compromises – but only if statehood and the prospects for European integration are preserved.
Details of peace plans
Researchers presented respondents with three shortened versions of the plans, without disclosing their authorship:
Conditional US plan
- European states (without the United States) provide Ukraine with security guarantees.
- Russia maintains control over the occupied territories.
- The United States officially recognizes Crimea as part of Russia.
- Ukraine moves toward EU membership.
- The United States and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia.
Conditional plan of Europe and Ukraine
- Ukraine receives reliable security guarantees from Europe and the United States.
- Russia retains control over the occupied territories, but Ukraine and the world do not officially recognize this.
- Ukraine moves toward EU membership.
- The United States gradually eases sanctions after a sustainable peace is established.
Russia’s conditional plan
- Ukraine significantly reduces its army and limits its weapons.
- Ukraine permanently renounces its NATO membership.
- Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and the entire territory of three regions fall under Russian control.
- Ukraine officially recognizes all occupied territories as part of Russia.
- Ukraine moves toward EU membership.
- All sanctions are lifted.
Increased willingness to compromise
The main trend is that Ukrainians are becoming more open to difficult decisions for the sake of peace, but categorically reject capitulation.
Compared to May 2025, the share of those who are ready – albeit reluctantly – to support each of the proposed plans has increased. The plan of Europe and Ukraine received the greatest support, with 54% of Ukrainians ready to accept it (51% in May), while 30% are strongly opposed (35% in May).
The conditional US plan shows the largest increase in support – 39% can accept it, which is a significant increase compared to 29% in May. At the same time, the share of those who strongly disagree has decreased from 62% to 49%.
Even the Russian plan, despite remaining the least popular, shows an increase in readiness to accept it from 10% to 17%. However, the vast majority of Ukrainians – 76% – strongly reject it, although this figure has slightly decreased from 82% in May.
Regional differences
The survey revealed significant regional differences in the perception of peace plans. Eastern Ukraine demonstrates the greatest willingness to compromise – 66% of local residents can accept the US plan (only 24% are strongly opposed), and 70% support the Europe-Ukraine plan (against 28% who disagree). Even the Russian plan, which is generally rejected by the vast majority of Ukrainians, has the least support in the East, with only 9% ready to accept it.
Instead, the West of Ukraine shows the greatest resistance to compromise. Here, only 33% can accept the U.S. plan (56% are strongly opposed), while the Europe-Ukraine plan is supported by 55% (38% are strongly opposed). Interestingly, the Russian plan has higher support in the West than in the East – 20% are ready to accept it, although 73% are still strongly against it.
The Center and South of Ukraine occupy an intermediate position between the West and the East, with a slightly higher willingness to compromise in the South, which may reflect the specifics of the regions and their experience of war.
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The impact of trust in Zelenskyy
The correlation between trust in the president and attitudes toward peace plans was interesting:
Those who distrust Zelenskyy are somewhat more likely to accept all three plans, including the Russian one (20% vs. 14% among those who trust the president). However, even among those who distrust the president, 67% categorically reject Russian demands.
Research methodology
- Period: july 23 – August 4, 2025.
- Sample: 1022 respondents.
- Method: telephone interviews (CATI).
- Marginof error: up to 4.1% for the total sample, up to 7.2% for each individual plan.
- Territory: the territory controlled by Ukraine.
- Experimental approach: each respondent evaluated only one randomly selected plan.
Expert comment
KIIS Executive Director Anton Grushetsky emphasizes that despite Russia’s aggressive actions and brutal attacks in recent months, the principled position of Ukrainians has not changed. Ukrainians remain open to negotiations, but the vast majority reject capitulation.
“Russia is the only real obstacle to sustainable peace in Ukraine. Only pressure on Russia – by providing the necessary weapons to Ukraine, imposing effective sanctions, disrupting the normal functioning of Russians’ lives, such as paralyzing air traffic,”
– hrushetsky believes.
Policy implications
The study shows that:
- Ukrainian society is not ready to surrender – three-quarters of the population rejects Russia’s plan.
- There is room for diplomatic solutions – the majority supports the European-Ukrainian approach.
- Regional specifics matter – the East is more willing to compromise, which may reflect the influence of proximity to the front line.
- There isa growing “war fatigue ” – a general increase in readiness for difficult decisions.
This study provides an important insight into how Ukrainian society sees possible paths to peace and what compromises it is willing to accept under certain circumstances.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy’s approval rating is falling.
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