A mission with a twist: a professor explains what’s behind Witkoff’s likely visit to Moscow
4 August 16:11
ANALYSIS
The United States Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, is likely to visit the Russian Federation this week. This was stated by U.S. President Donald Trump, who noted that the visit could take place on Wednesday or Thursday, August 6-7. At the same time, nothing substantive was said about the purpose of this trip.
Is the United States really starting to put real pressure on Russia not with statements but with markets? Why is Medvedev nervous and Putin silent? The very discussion surrounding Witkoff’s trip looks like a protracted diplomatic game with no clear outcome. This is what Serhiy Yagodzinsky, Doctor of Philosophy, Professor at the European University, says in an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian".
“This ‘I’m going, I’m not going’, ‘I will, I won’t’ no longer impresses Ukrainians. Ukrainians are not even interested in this news. We do not expect anything – even at such a high level as Witkoff-Putin.”
– Serhiy Yahodzinsky.
The purpose of the visit is not Ukraine?
The analyst suggests that the real focus of the visit is nuclear safety and control over global threats.
“I attribute this to the danger of a renewed Cold War. The tension that has risen due to Medvedev’s careless statements may prompt the parties to de-escalate. Two or more submarines with nuclear weapons is serious,”
– Professor Yahodzinsky emphasizes.
At the same time, who exactly Witkoff will receive an invitation from and whom he will meet will also matter.
“If he meets with Putin, it will be a signal that nuclear safety is at stake. If he meets with someone of a lower rank, then perhaps the topic of the war in Ukraine or sanctions will be discussed,” Yahodzinsky explains,
– Yahodzinsky explains.
US sanctions: not statements, but actions
Answering a question about sanctions against Russia, which could be imposed on Friday if Moscow does not agree to the conditions set forth, Trump said.
“There will be sanctions, but they seem to be pretty good at avoiding them. You know, they’re cunning and they’re pretty good at avoiding sanctions. So we’ll see what happens.”
Trump
However, real sanctions are not announced loudly, Professor Yahodzinsky is sure. They are simply implemented – strategically, marketly, economically.
“Sanctions have already been launched. They are not announced so publicly: they say, here is the last Chinese warning. No, they are not. Processes are being launched that show that either we agree or it will be painful,”
– Yahodzinsky notes.
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Examples of pressure: India and the EU under the shadow of sanctions
The expert draws attention to the energy market, which the United States is wresting from the Kremlin’s hands, particularly in Europe and Asia.
“Trump has taken the European energy market away from Russia. Europe pays three times more for gas, but agreed to this because otherwise it is sponsoring the war against Ukraine,”
– says Sergiy Yahodzinsky.
The expert pays special attention to India. After a series of public disputes, the country has already ordered American oil for the fall of 2025:
“India has been made aware of what will happen to them if they continue to buy Russian energy. And the fact that they have already chartered American oil is the sanction,”
– emphasizes Yagodzinsky.
Will the Kremlin withstand a new blow?
According to the expert, strikes against Ukraine are a response to pressure, and Medvedev’s statements are a symptom of internal irritation at the top of the Kremlin.
“This is painful. This can be seen in the attacks – three times today alone. And Medvedev’s words are the words of a person who is irritated. This is not just for fun,”
– emphasizes Serhiy Yahodzinsky.
Bottom line: a visit with global implications
Will Witkoff’s meeting in Moscow be a turning point? It is unlikely. Is it important to keep an eye on it? Absolutely.
US sanctions are turning from a political tool into an economic weapon. And although Ukrainian society is no longer expecting miracles, global players continue to look for ways to maintain a balance.
“Unfortunately, Ukrainian society no longer expects anything positive from such meetings,”
– Sergiy Yahodzinsky summarizes.
Despite the absence of an official narrative, Steve Witkoff’s potential visit to Moscow certainly has a broad and serious context. The United States demonstrates power not with words, but with strategic market shifts, as in the case of the EU and India. A blow to Russian energy carriers is much more painful than traditional sanctions. Witkoff’s visit could be a marker of a new stage of pressure – or a step toward stabilization. At the same time, it is important for Ukraine not to wait but to prepare. Because real processes are often decided not at press conferences but behind closed doors.
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