Frosts have hit fruit trees: why the situation is worse than in 2025
4 April 07:46
The severe frosts of winter 2026 significantly worsened the condition of fruit trees in Ukraine compared to last year. Early stone fruits were hit hardest—primarily apricots, as well as cherries and sweet cherries. According to data from the fruit tree growth survey, which the Hydrometeorological Center traditionally conducts in the first half of March, the situation is noticeably worse than in 2025. This is stated in a report on the organization’s website, as reported by "Komersant Ukrainian"
According to these estimates, flower bud mortality ranged from 13–51% for apricots, 2–15% for cherries, and up to 14–16% for sweet cherries.
At the same time, later-blooming or hardier crops, such as apple, grape, and plum, survived the winter relatively better, and pear even showed improvement in some estimates.
Why early-season crops were hit hardest
The most vulnerable crops were those that enter the growing season earlier or have lower resistance to sharp winter temperature fluctuations. Apricot is traditionally one of the most sensitive trees, and this was confirmed again this year by field observations.
In a number of regions, after temperatures dropped to -15°C in late January, agrometeorologists conducted branch regrowth tests and recorded significant damage to buds.
Severe frosts hit stone fruit orchards particularly hard in several regions, and the increased vulnerability may have been caused not only by the cold itself but also by previous weather conditions—in particular, a warm autumn, which prevented the trees from fully entering a state of winter dormancy.
Which crops fared better over the winter
Unlike apricots and some other early crops, apple, plum, and grape trees appear more stable in most assessments. This does not mean there are no risks at all, but it indicates that these plantings weathered the winter better and currently do not show the same level of losses as early stone fruits.
Pears are also mentioned separately, with some observations noting a better situation than last year.
What this means for the 2026 fruit harvest
Damage to flower buds does not automatically mean the loss of the entire harvest, but it is one of the most important early indicators of future problems. The higher the percentage of bud mortality, the greater the risk that the tree will produce weaker blooms and, consequently, fewer fruits.
Therefore, for apricots, cherries, and sweet cherries, the 2026 season already looks riskier than 2025 right from the start.
An additional risk: a record-dry March
The situation for orchards and the agricultural sector in general is complicated by the fact that March 2026 turned out to be extremely dry. In Kyiv, according to the Central Geophysical Observatory, it was the driest in 135 years of observations—only 1 mm of precipitation fell, or about 3% of the monthly norm. This is a local but highly indicative sign of a broader moisture problem.
A dry start to spring is important not only for field crops but also for orchards. If the precipitation deficit persists, trees, already stressed by frost, may face an additional moisture shortage. That is why the risks to the 2026 harvest are now being shaped not by a single factor, but by a combination of winter frosts and a very dry March.
What about winter crops and spring planting
Against this backdrop, the situation with winter crops appears more stable. Industry publications, citing agrometeorologists, have noted that a significant portion of winter crops is in good condition, although in some regions, frosts and moisture shortages may lead to partial crop losses and the need for replanting.
At the same time, the early spring and warmed-up soil in some regions have allowed spring crop planting to begin earlier than usual.
