IMF agrees with WTO: trade and political uncertainty are holding back economic activity
22 April 2025 17:57
The International Monetary Fund has significantly lowered its forecast for global GDP growth in 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% from 3.3%. This was reported by Forbes Ukraine with reference to the April review of the global economy prepared by the IMF, according to
The International Monetary Fund has adjusted its forecasts in view of the fact that the escalation of trade tensions and the extremely high level of political uncertainty could significantly affect global economic activity.
What the IMF predicts
According to the baseline forecast, which includes information as of April 4, global growth is expected to decline to 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026, down from 3.3 percent for both years in the January 2025 review.
The forecast for global inflation for 2025-2026 was raised by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively.
The IMF has almost halved its estimate of global trade growth for 2025 – to 1.7% from 3.2%. In 2026, it is expected to grow by 2.5% instead of the 3.3% forecasted in January.
The International Monetary Fund left unchanged its forecast for Ukrainian economic growth in 2025 at 2%. In 2026, GDP is expected to grow by 4.5%
For Ukraine, inflation is projected at 12.6% in 2025, and 7.7% in the following year.
The WTO notes deteriorating prospects for global trade
The World Trade Organization’s latest World Trade Outlook and Statistics report notes that the “sharp deterioration” in the global economic outlook occurred after the introduction of duties and further uncertainty in trade policy.
The World Trade Organization predicts that, given the tariffs currently in place and taking into account the 90-day suspension of “reciprocal tariffs,” the volume of world trade in goods may decline by 0.2% in 2025, before resuming growth in 2026.
The WTO also warns that “there are serious risks” that could make the situation worse. These include the application of “reciprocal” tariffs and even greater political uncertainty, “which could lead to an even sharper drop in world trade by 1.5%. And this will be felt primarily by export-oriented and least developed countries.
