Peace or strategic deadlock: what awaits Ukraine after the talks in Saudi Arabia?
11 March 17:26
On Tuesday, March 11, negotiations between the Ukrainian and American delegations started in Saudi Arabia, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine reported.
Before the meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that official Kyiv would probably have to make certain concessions regarding the territories seized by Russia since 2014 if it wanted to reach an agreement to end the war.
At the same time, he emphasized that during the upcoming negotiations with Moscow, it is necessary to clearly clarify what compromises Russia itself is willing to make. Rubio also clarified that the issue of cooperation in the field of minerals is not a topic of current negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko believes that the best outcome of these talks for Ukraine would be the resumption of full arms supplies and satellite intelligence by the United States.
“But its probability is, let’s say, very relative. It depends not only on the negotiations. And the most likely scenario is the one in which these restrictions (on arms supplies – ed.) will not be lifted for us, no matter how the negotiations develop,” the political scientist noted.
Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych also spoke about the resumption of military assistance to Ukraine.
“The best option is that we will have a common position with the United States on the end of the war, plus we will be restored all the assistance that was provided earlier. And we will have a common position on the format of how this should be done,” Reiterovich said.
In turn, political analyst Oleh Saakyan believes that the best outcome of the talks for Ukraine could be an option in which the United States begins to work on a proposal for a thirty-day ceasefire in the air and at sea, which was agreed upon by Kyiv and its European partners. The task of the American side in this case is to try to implement it with Russia, which will require pressure on the Kremlin.
Worst-case scenario for Ukraine: what it could be and what to prepare for
According to political scientist Oleh Fesenko, one of the pessimistic outcomes of the talks in Saudi Arabia for Ukrainians could be a deadlock in further negotiations to end the war, further deterioration of relations with the United States, and even a new conflict of interest between Kyiv and Washington.
Ihor Reiterovych has a similar vision of the situation. He noted that the most pessimistic outcome of the Jeddah talks for Ukraine is the unacceptable conditions set by the US side. Also, Washington’s statement that “Ukraine does not want peace”.
Political analyst Oleg Sahakyan in his forecast, which he voiced exclusively for
“In this case, one of the two current scenarios of US behavior may be confirmed, in which Trump (US President Donald Trump – ed.) is not interested in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, but only in “dumping” responsibility on Ukraine and Europe for the inability to end it,” Sahakyan emphasized.
What is known about the talks between Ukraine and the United States in Saudi Arabia
As of now, the first round of high-level talks between the United States and Ukraine has been completed in Jeddah, aimed at exploring ways to end the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine. The U.S. delegation, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, met with Ukrainian officials, including the head of the Presidential Administration Andriy Yermak.
“The main goal now is to bring peace, a just and lasting peace. We want peace more than anyone else. Everything is going constructively,” commented Daria Zarivna, Communications Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.
Agenda and proposals
The Ukrainian delegation, as reported by the world media, proposed a limited ceasefire in the Black Sea region and a cessation of long-range missile strikes, as well as the exchange of prisoners. This initiative aims to pave the way for more comprehensive peace talks with Russia.
In addition, the delegations are expected to discuss the potential resumption of U.S. military assistance and intelligence support to Ukraine, which was suspended amid previous diplomatic tensions.
Also discussed in Jeddah were the details of the Minerals Agreement to be signed by Kyiv and Washington.
It is worth noting that the talks are taking place amid tense relations between the United States and Ukraine after a public dispute between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The US administration emphasizes the need for Ukraine to demonstrate its readiness for peace talks, which may involve difficult compromises.
International reaction
China has already reacted to the talks between Ukraine and the United States in Jeddah.
“China supports all efforts aimed at a peaceful settlement of the ‘Ukrainian crisis’ (the war in Ukraine – ed.) and hopes that all parties involved will be able to reach a fair, lasting and acceptable solution,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.
