The US “peace plan” has changed investor sentiment: Ukrainian stocks have risen sharply
22 November 06:57
Ukrainian financial instruments – from stocks to government bonds and GDP warrants – rose sharply after details of the United States’ new “peace plan” to end the war emerged. Investors took the initiative as a potential signal of risk reduction and future stabilization in Ukraine. According to trading data on exchanges in Warsaw, London and Frankfurt, analyzed by Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrainian assets showed synchronized growth in all key segments, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
Why did Ukrainian assets suddenly take off?
The main reason is the emergence of specific details of the US “peace plan.”
Investors usually react quickly to even a hint of de-escalation, as lower military risks increase the value of assets that have been considered high-risk for years.
The first rumors appeared in the middle of the week, and after the official confirmation, the market showed a sharp acceleration in growth.
Warsaw Stock Exchange: Ukrainian companies are among the day’s leaders
The Warsaw Stock Exchange, where the majority of Ukrainian companies are traded, showed the strongest gains.
the WIG-Ukraine index rose in two waves
- 2.43% after the first rumors;
- 3.86% on Friday after the details of the plan were made public.
As a result, the index reached 536.04 points, its highest level since September.
Importantly, this jump occurred against the backdrop of a general decline in the Polish market, as the WIG20 index dropped by almost 2%. This means that investment demand was targeted at Ukrainian assets.
The stocks that grew the most were:
- KSG Agro – 6.70%
- Coal Energy – 4.62% (despite frozen mines)
- Kernel – 4.58%
- IMC – 3.64%
- Astarta and Milkiland – 2.27% each
- Agroton – 1.94%
The agricultural sector has become the main driver of growth, as it provides foreign exchange earnings and responds quickly to changes in risks.
London Stock Exchange: cautious optimism
In London, the reaction was milder, as local investors are traditionally more cautious.
- Ferrexpo (an iron ore company) rose by 3.56%.
- MHP’s shares were slightly down -0.36%, which is attributed to internal operational factors and the instability of the agricultural market.
Boom in debt instruments: record jump in Eurobonds and GDP warrants
The real investment excitement has unfolded in the bond market.
Ukrainian Eurobonds:
- overall growth of 0.9-1.6%;
- some issues on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange gained more than 4% per day.
These figures indicate a sharp decline in the perception of credit risk.
GDP warrants hit a historic high
On Friday, their value increased by 1.86%, reaching 90.2% of the face value.
This is the highest level since the end of 2021, i.e. since the pre-war period.
GDP warrants are particularly sensitive to expectations of a Ukrainian economic recovery, so their surge shows that the market has begun to build in optimistic scenarios.
What does this mean for investors and the Ukrainian economy?
1. Lower risk expectations
Even a partial de-escalation increases the likelihood of economic and financial system stabilization.
2. Return of interest in Ukrainian assets
After several years of low activity, investors are responding to any sign of improvement.
3. Potential access to cheaper financing
The rise in bond prices may further affect borrowing conditions.
4. Volatility remains
The current growth is a reaction to the news. It all depends on whether the peace plan is actually implemented and how the geopolitical process continues.
