Oil breaks records: why the market has skyrocketed
25 February 08:53
Global oil prices remain close to seven-month highs amid expectations of negotiations between the US and Iran. Investors are concerned about the risk of military conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East. This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to Reuters.
How much does oil cost now?
As of the morning of February 25, Brent crude futures rose 0.6% to $71.20 per barrel.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.6% to $66.01 per barrel.
Last week, Brent reached its highest level since late July, and WTI since early August 2025.
Why the market is nervous
The main factor behind the growth is geopolitical tension. The US has deployed military forces in the Middle East in an attempt to force Iran to negotiate its nuclear and missile programs.
Iran is the third-largest oil producer among OPEC countries, so any conflict could significantly affect global supplies.
ING analysts note that the market is factoring a significant “risk premium” into oil prices and remains sensitive to news from the region.
US-Iran negotiations
The third round of talks between US and Iranian delegations is scheduled for Thursday in Geneva.
Special representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will participate on the American side.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that an agreement with the US is “possible if diplomacy becomes a priority.”
US President Donald Trump previously warned that in the absence of an agreement, “very serious consequences” are possible.
Iran and China strengthen military ties
Amid escalating tensions, Iran and China have stepped up negotiations on the purchase of Chinese anti-ship missiles, which could pose a threat to US naval forces in the region.
Experts note that such missiles would significantly enhance Iran’s strike capabilities.
US oil reserves have risen sharply
Despite geopolitical support for prices, the market is facing an oversupply.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude oil reserves rose by 11.43 million barrels in the week ending February 20.
At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks declined.
Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to be released later on Wednesday.
What’s next
Analysts note that further dynamics in the oil market will depend on:
- the results of negotiations between the US and Iran;
- Washington’s decisions on sanctions;
- the actual balance of supply and demand;
- new data on US reserves.
For now, the market remains in a holding pattern, with prices near their seven-month highs.
