How stable will the power supply be? Overview of the situation in the energy sector after massive shelling
28 January 11:04
ANALYSIS FROM 
The lights are coming back on. At least in some regions, including the capital and the surrounding area, there are fewer power cuts and hourly schedules have even begun to operate. Ukrainians are worried about how long the lights will stay on in their homes, which will also help to heat their cold apartments. Komersant investigated what has changed in the energy supply and whether stability can be expected in the near future.
The number of teams working to eliminate the consequences of the shelling has increased eightfold. However, energy experts do not rule out the worst-case scenario — if the attacks continue, Kyiv could be completely cut off from power. This was announced in an interview with Suspilne by YASNO CEO Serhiy Kovalenko.
Kovalenko stressed that Russia is deliberately trying to destroy the city’s power system with regular massive strikes. At the same time, whether there will be a complete blackout depends on several factors: the effectiveness of air defense, weather conditions, and the extent of damage after the attacks.
However, Ukrainian energy companies are constantly adapting to threats and finding solutions, so the system is being restored step by step. The company’s CEO assured that restoration work is currently continuing at an accelerated pace.
At the same time, TPP-6, on which one of the largest residential areas of Kyiv, Troieshchyna, is 100% dependent, is not working, according to the head of the Desnianskyi District Administration, Bakhmatov.
“Right now, the sixth thermal power plant is definitely not supplying heat. They are trying to supply the forest area through other heat sources. There is no alternative for Troieshchyna. We are not being told what happened, but we know that it happened after the last shelling on Saturday night. The situation is critical, and no one knows what to do,” says Bakhmatov.
At the same time, however, attempts are being made to normalize the situation in other areas of Kyiv, and even this weekend, some areas had more light and even heat where the pipes did not burst after the frost and the water was not drained from the system.
The situation is changing every day
Emergency power cuts continue as before. However, there are undoubtedly some positive developments, as noted in a conversation with
“The situation is worst in the capital, where some buildings have been without electricity and heating since January 9. The situation there is generally dire, and it will take a long time to restore services because some of the damage cannot be repaired quickly,” the expert said.
There are no clear predictions as to when everything will be restored, and there cannot be any. The situation is constantly changing. In addition to shelling, emergency situations are adding to the problems because the equipment has been idle for a very long time.
“As it turns out, we will need more time to fix everything and get it up and running. The main thing here is that energy companies have all the necessary equipment for repairs, that supplies are constant, and that our officials switch from holding various unnecessary meetings with the mandatory presence of specialists to resolving requests from energy companies,” says Gennady Ryabtsev.
Sergey Dyachenko, head of the Bureau for Comprehensive Analysis and Forecasting (BCAF) and a well-known Ukrainian energy expert, commented
“Yes, it will take time to restore Kyiv’s thermal power plants, but the situation will improve every day. At the moment, the situation is already normalizing. But it all depends on whether there will be repeated rocket and drone strikes. I really hope that our air defense will work here,” the expert notes.
Currently, our energy is being distributed from nuclear power plants, so many regions are also experiencing power shortages because reconnection work is underway. Nuclear power plants are helping us out right now because thermal generation is down. But we also need to think about backup power.
“We need to create distributed heat and power generation, which experts have been talking about since 2022. But none of our leaders wanted to do this, hoping for someone else’s help. The mayor of Kyiv promised to do this — and did not. Therefore, Kyiv has the biggest problems, because it was obvious that the thermal power plants would be hit. We had a year to prepare. In Kharkiv, they did it, and after their thermal power plants were destroyed, they still had electricity,” said Serhiy Dyachenko.
Generators are the only way out of this situation
As Gennady Ryabtsev emphasizes, all buildings that are currently without heat and light need to be connected to generators as a matter of urgency. Especially today, when the temperature outside is above zero. Western countries have provided us with generators, but I have not yet seen any that would power the entrances to buildings. Generators are the only solution for now, because it takes at least a month to install cogeneration plants. And they cannot operate everywhere. Many buildings in the capital cannot be connected to cogeneration plants because they have no electricity or a single centralized heating system.
“If the shelling does not stop, and it will not stop, and the networks continue to fail, the only solution in this situation is generators. A tactical solution is to encourage the connection of small power plants to the grid. Businesses have installed them, but there are no incentives to connect them to the power grid. This is because the cost of generating energy with such plants is higher than 4.33 hryvnia. And connecting such plants means a loss for the company. The new energy minister now wants to ask businesses to share their megawatts, even though each kilowatt will result in a loss of more than one hryvnia,” emphasizes Gennady Ryabtsev.
Unfortunately, foreign countries cannot help us, according to energy experts, because all we can get is 1.5 gigawatts of power. Although we could get much more. But for some reason, no one is interested in outside help.
Against the backdrop of these problems, it is not surprising that DTEK CEO Maxim Timchenko called for an “energy truce.” As he noted, his company has lost 60-70% of its capacity, and restoring the entire power system will cost $65-70 billion. Generation is not operating at full capacity. Ukraine needs to build a new power system, not just repair the old one, with an emphasis on decentralized generation. Because Russia’s attacks have brought Ukraine close to a humanitarian catastrophe. Serhiy Dyachenko, head of the Bureau of Comprehensive Analysis and Forecasting, also believes that if the shelling of energy facilities stops, everything can be repaired by summer and electricity can be restored to the people.
Author: Alla Dunina
