Not a blackout, but a survival mode: an expert assessed the state of Ukraine’s energy system and gave a forecast for spring
11 November 19:16
Ukraine has no plans to ease the schedules of power outages as the country’s energy system is still operating in a deficit mode. During a briefing, Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk explained that the blackout schedules remain a necessary step due to Russia’s constant attacks on energy infrastructure.
How serious are the consequences of the shelling of energy infrastructure for the central regions and the capital? What awaits Ukraine’s energy system in the coming months – will it be possible to avoid a complete blackout? Read more in the article
Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk said at a briefing that there are no plans to ease the schedules of power outages in Ukraine, as the country’s energy system is operating at a deficit.
“The baseline scenario is the situation we have now. Enemy shelling may again complicate the operation of the power system,” explained Ms. Hrynchuk.
She emphasized that the blackout schedules remain a necessary step due to the lack of electricity in the country. Work is also being restored at the Trypillia and Zmiiv TPPs, which were previously shut down due to Russian shelling.
Ukraine is surviving in the energy mode: forecasts until spring
Ukraine has a powerful unified energy system, but today it is operating in a war zone, where every strike on the infrastructure can disrupt the balance of the grid. Energy expert Sergiy Dyachenko in an exclusive commentary
“We don’t know exactly which facilities were hit, but we do know that Centrenergo’s power plants, Trypilska and Ladyzhynska, and part of the infrastructure of nuclear power plants were damaged. This is the main reason for the disruptions in Kyiv and central Ukraine,” says Dyachenko.
According to Dyachenko, Ukraine’s energy system is indeed unified and quite reliable, which has saved the country from a complete blackout. However, the Russian strikes on generation and substations have upset the balance – the grid cannot instantly compensate for the loss of such capacities, even if the connections between the regions formally exist.
“We are not experiencing blackouts, but stabilization or emergency outages. This is not a system collapse, but a forced survival mode,” the expert explains.
According to Dyachenko, the restrictions will last at least until spring.
“It is unlikely that Putin will stop trying to break down Ukraine’s energy system. So we need to adapt – there will be interruptions, but the country will most likely not be completely cut off, as it was in 2023,” Dyachenko summarized.
Thus, Ukraine has a powerful unified power system that can withstand enemy attacks. However, each new attack on substations or generation can upset the balance of the grid. According to experts, the electricity restrictions will last at least until spring, but a complete blackout should not be expected.
