The illegal cigarette market is growing, but smuggling is receding: what new Kantar data shows
17 December 15:24
The share of smuggling in the illegal tobacco market in Ukraine continues to decline, according to the results of the latest study by Kantar Ukraine, Monitoring of Illegal Trade in Tobacco Products. This was reported by Kyiv Customs on Facebook, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
What the study says
According to the study, in October 2025, the overall level of illegal cigarette trade in Ukraine increased to 17.8%, compared to 15.4% a month earlier. At the same time, the share of smuggled products in the structure of the illegal market decreased to 1.1% from 1.4%.
This means that the main growth of the illegal segment is not due to the import of cigarettes from abroad, but to the domestic illegal production and circulation of products without paying taxes.
What the State Customs Service says
The State Customs Service notes that the decline in the share of smuggling is the result of tighter border controls. During the first 11 months of 2025, customs authorities seized 1.61 million cigarettes that were attempted to be smuggled across the state border. The estimated value of the seized products is UAH 9.1 million.
In the near future, the government and regulatory authorities are expected to focus on combating the domestic shadow market segment, in particular, illegal production and retail trade without excise stamps.
