Shortage of fertilizers and diesel fuel: Ukraine’s spring sowing campaign under threat
5 March 16:23
The spring sowing campaign in Ukraine may face a number of economic challenges. The main risks are a shortage of mineral fertilizers and possible disruptions in diesel fuel supplies. In particular, prices for ammonium nitrate and urea are expected to rise by 4-5%.
This was reported to Delo.ua by Oleg Khomenko, CEO of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), and Yevgen Barkov, coordinator of the UAC fertilizer market operators committee, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
What are the threats to the upcoming sowing season?
Ukraine has sufficient levels of productive moisture in the soil for spring field work, Khomenko noted.
However, there is a shortage of about 200,000 tons of ammonium nitrate due to attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure, he said.
The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club has already appealed to the Ministry of Infrastructure with an initiative to allow the use of calcium nitrate as a substitute, which is non-explosive and can therefore be handled in ports. The issue is currently in the process of approval, said the CEO of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.
The Ukrainian agricultural sector’s annual demand for ammonium nitrate is over 1.2 million tons, according to Latifundist.
Overall, fertilizer consumption in 2025 will increase to 5.2 million tons, compared to 4.7 million tons in 2023.
“Some companies that have built up stocks in advance will not feel the shortage. At the same time, other market players are reporting shortages,” Khomenko said.
Barkov, coordinator of the UACAB fertilizer market operators committee, explained that the agricultural product market is structured in such a way that it is not the producer who sets the prices for their products, and any increase in production costs has a significant impact.
Importers have already changed their logistics routes, and end consumers have to pay an additional $40 per ton for this, Barkov said.
“In March-April, we can expect ammonium nitrate to cost from 27,000 hryvnia and urea from 30,000 hryvnia. Accordingly, each agricultural producer will decide for themselves whether they can afford to purchase fertilizers in full or whether they will have to adopt other strategies,” he said.
The expert also added that in February, ammonium nitrate was purchased at 26,000 hryvnia and urea at 28,500 hryvnia.
“The price will continue to rise,” Barkov concluded.
Diesel: risk of price fluctuations
Another risk factor for the sowing campaign is the supply of diesel fuel. Slovakia and Hungary have refused to export diesel fuel to Ukraine. This could affect the market, the expert stressed.
“The annual share of supplies from these countries accounted for about 5% of Ukrainian consumption. This is the amount required by the agricultural sector during the spring fieldwork period. Although there is no critical shortage, possible price fluctuations will directly affect the cost of production,” said the CEO of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.
Seeds, equipment, and finances — no significant risks
There are no problems with seed supply. Many companies have also reinvested funds in upgrading their fleets and purchasing equipment, Khomenko said.
As for financial resources, last year was quite successful for agricultural producers. Therefore, financial security is in a satisfactory state,” he added.
