A New Deal and Compromises on Territories: How Trump’s Victory Will Affect the Course of the War
14 November 2024 20:51
After Donald Trump’s victory, Ukraine is changing its priorities, putting security guarantees first, rather than the issue of territorial losses. This is reported by the American edition of The New York Times.
According to the NYT, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stated that they will not give up the territory occupied by Russia as part of any peace process. However, given the position of the newly elected US president, who is in favor of “speeding up the negotiation process,” Kyiv has begun to attach the same importance to security guarantees as to the issue of defining borders.
“Negotiations should be based on guarantees. There is nothing more important for Ukraine,” says Roman Kostenko, chairman of the Verkhovna Rada’s Defense and Intelligence Committee.
Political analyst Oleg Sahakyan exclusively for
“It is likely that in order for Trump to change his perception of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the territorial aspect may be bypassed and the focus will be on security guarantees,” the expert noted.
The issue of peace and Trump: the main threats
Sahakyan emphasized that any plan based on freezing the territorial component would not be viable. However, in order for this to be clear to our partners across the ocean in practice, it is likely that the process can begin without strict regulation of borders. According to the political scientist, Trump may intensify the process of developments in the Russian-Ukrainian war, but the speed of events will be significantly different from what it was under Biden.
“Biden, on the contrary, tried to slow down the war, and Trump will try to speed it up,” Sahakian said.
Regarding predictions after Trump’s inauguration regarding the ceasefire, Sahakian noted that we will probably see some prototype of the plan that Trump will put forward.
“But I don’t expect the ceasefire to be achieved quickly. Although there will be attempts, I think, I don’t see the possibility of either a ceasefire or a freeze in the Russian-Ukrainian war,” the political analyst said.
And negotiations, according to Sahakyan, can begin only after Trump’s inauguration.
“However, I am skeptical that these talks will lead to the end of the war or to imposing unacceptable compromises on Ukraine, which could then lead to an even bloodier war,” the political analyst says.
How the military views possible cessions of territory and who has the right to decide
In a conversation with KU journalists, Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman Yevhen Ievlev said that he had never personally heard a government or military official say that Ukraine was ready to cede territory. He emphasizes that many of these statements are speculations that emerged after Donald Trump’s re-election as president of the United States.
“These are assumptions that can be analyzed, but how can only assumptions be analyzed?” asks Ievlev, emphasizing that it is very difficult to talk about the possibility of concessions from Ukraine without clear official statements.
According to the military, such a question does not concern any particular political or military person, this question can only be put to the people of Ukraine. He emphasizes that this can only be resolved through a referendum or other democratic mechanisms. According to him, it is too early to talk about any concessions or negotiations, and a ceasefire is needed first.
“Only after the ceasefire are any dialogues possible on the basis of international law, with the support of the United States and the Western coalition,” the soldier concluded.
Will Trump be able to cease fire after his inauguration on January 20?
Ievlev also does not rule out the possibility that US President-elect Donald Trump will be able to facilitate a ceasefire.
“I believe that Trump has the leverage to at least cease fire and bring both sides to the negotiating table,” he said, adding that such negotiations could be difficult and take longer, as two and a half years of war cannot be ended in one day or week.
At the same time, American political strategist Jason J. Smart in an exclusive commentary
“I think Trump has not yet decided how he sees the end of the war in Ukraine. He is still collecting information, there will be a whole process of negotiations, and only after that Trump will give a concrete decision on his vision of peace in Ukraine,” Smart said.
Thus, the issue of territorial concessions remains open amid the new political situation in the United States. According to experts, Ukraine should be ready to make real compromises, but this requires security guarantees that will ensure stability on its territory. However, whether such guarantees can be achieved in practice and to what extent Ukraine will be able to preserve its strategic interests in the face of rapid changes remains an open question.
Author – Daryna Glushchenko
