Iran’s new president: should we expect changes in relations with Ukraine?
31 July 2024 12:07
EXCLUSIVE
The election of Iran’s new president, Massoud Peseshkian, has raised questions about possible changes in relations between Iran and Ukraine. However, experts agree that no dramatic changes are to be expected, writes "Komersant Ukrainian"
New president – old government
Masoud Peseshkian, a 69-year-old cardiac surgeon, won the second round of elections in Iran, beating hardline conservative Saeed Jalili. It is believed that millions of Iranians are hoping for Peseshkian, who wants fewer restrictions on social freedoms and a more pragmatic foreign policy.
The newly elected president has promised to promote a pragmatic foreign policy, ease tensions in negotiations with major powers to renew the 2015 nuclear deal, and improve prospects for social liberalisation and political pluralism. In other words, these are traditional steps that in similar situations indicate a politician’s liberal attitude.
However, as analysts point out, real power in Iran is concentrated in the hands of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is the real holder of power in the country. Even formally, the new president has to coordinate the candidates for government officials with the Ayatollah.
Therefore, Ukraine should not expect Iran’s foreign policy to change in any significant way in the near future, experts say.
“A new president? No, nothing will change dramatically. Because we need to understand that the religious leader is the key in Iran, and the post of president is largely declarative and decorative,”
– said political analyst Igor Reiterovich in an exclusive commentary to Kommersant Ukrainian
Ukraine-Iran: steadily cool
The expert recalls that relations between Ukraine and Iran were cool even before the Islamic State started helping Russia.
“The relations finally deteriorated after they started supplying shahids to Russia. And, in principle, they definitely sided with Russia. Although these relations were already not at a very good level after they shot down our civilian aircraft,”
– reiterovich said.
The downing of a Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 passenger plane near Tehran on 8 January 2020 was a tragic event that significantly affected Ukrainian-Iranian relations. All 176 people on board, including 9 members of the Ukrainian crew, were killed as a result of a missile strike by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. After several days of denials, Iran admitted its responsibility for the crash, attributing it to human error.
Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik also emphasises that the downing of the Ukrainian plane and the reaction of the parties had a dramatic impact on the deterioration of Ukrainian-Iranian relations.
“The investigation into this matter has not been completed, and no compensation has been paid to the company or the relatives of the victims. In fact, cooperation between the two countries in this area has been suspended. In addition, Iran suspects that Ukraine’s demands are backed by the demands of Ukraine’s Western allies, and Iran has traditionally had extremely negative relations with the United States and the Western world. Ukraine notes the lack of cooperation from Iran,”
– says the political scientist.
Are changes in relations between Ukraine and Iran possible/necessary?
Experts are also sceptical about possible changes in relations with Ukraine. If there are changes in the near future, they will most likely be for the worse. Reiterovich notes:
“The relations may deteriorate even more if Iran, for example, starts supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, and Russia starts using these missiles against Ukraine.”
As reported by
It is worth noting that the newly elected President Pesekian has experience in government. He was Minister of Health from 2001 to 2005 during the second term of President Mohammad Khatami. He has also been a member of parliament since 2008, where he has regularly criticised the clerical establishment’s suppression of political and social dissent.
However, almost no one doubts that the country’s ruling theocracy will not allow Pesekian to introduce serious changes in the country, even if he tries. Especially in foreign policy. Therefore, the influence of the new Iranian president on Ukrainian-Iranian relations is likely to be minimal.
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