Defence of Vuhledar. Is the Ukrainian Defence Forces under threat of encirclement?
25 September 2024 19:44
ANALYSIS FROM 
the 72nd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has begun to withdraw from Vuhledar in Donetsk region – Forbes. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun to warn of a possible encirclement. What is happening in one of the hottest spots on the frontline, is the final stage of the city’s defence really underway and, most importantly, is there a place for Ukrainian troops to retreat to – The Times [Kommersant] found out.
According to analysts at Frontelligence Insight, the situation in the city is critical, but let’s take a look at the situation from the military and analysts.
What does the Ukrainian side say about Vuhledar?
“In the morning, they attacked Vuhledar again from the direction of Pavlivka. The statements of the p…rats that they have cut the road to Epiphany are not true at the moment,” military’s TG “Sniper Speaks”
“In Vuhledar, unfortunately, the moment when the whole situation around the city could have been changed, especially on the flanks, has been lost. We need not only to make a decision, but to implement a whole plan of measures to save the lives of the guys and not to worsen the situation even more. It is very difficult to accept this.” – TG military “Officer”
“Friends, this is just for you to understand the conditions in which the guys are kept in Vuhledar. Otherwise, I got some condescending comments in the comments section – about… losing it? We are not losing it. It’s being held so that the Atlanteans who held the sky are nervously smoking and asking to meet the real Atlanteans defending Vuhledar,” said Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier Kirill Sazonov, showing shocking videos from the frontline.
The Forbes magazine announced its withdrawal from Vuhledar in Donetsk region, which received a portion of criticism from military analysts. What the publication says:
“It appears that as Russian troops began to threaten the city’s flanks last week, the 2,000-strong 72nd Mechanised Brigade, armed with T-64 tanks, BMP-2 armoured personnel carriers and M-109 howitzers, began to slowly withdraw to more defensible positions,” writes David Axe, a Forbes analyst
Military observer Vasyl Pehnyo agrees that the situation is indeed critical. However, information like Forbes can play into the hands of the enemy. Moreover, even the military on the front line cannot give a clear assessment of the situation.
“Reporting on a brigade’s withdrawal in real time means being as unempathetic to Ukraine as possible. Such data, if true, gives the enemy an advantage. I have just spoken to the soldiers of the 72nd. I can neither confirm nor deny what Forbes writes about. Because it is impossible to accurately assess the situation, even after talking to a dozen soldiers,” Vasyl Pehnyo
OSINT analyst at Intelschizo writesthat after the withdrawal of the Defence Forces from Vuhledar, the Russian-occupied railway line from Volnovakha to Olenivka will soon be out of range of Ukrainian field artillery. Although Ukraine has not yet fired a single artillery shell in this direction.
“Currently, the closest point on the contact line to the so-called ‘Tsar Train’ is 16 km away. However, the line is likely to be pushed back another 16 km over the next 6 months due to poor terrain and defensive lines similar to the Russian offensive on Avdiivka and the breakthrough in Ocheretyne.” – Intelschizo
Is the enemy encircling the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
No, our units are not encircled, writes military observer Vasyl Pehnyo. However, our logistics are disrupted. So far, not physically, but by fire.
“To leave the positions in Vuhledar is a hyper-complex quest for survival. That is the main problem,” Vasyl Pehnyo
Oleksandr Musienko, Head of the Centre for Military Legal Studies, in an exclusive comment for , assures that the command will not allow the Ukrainian military to be caught in the ring of command.
“Most likely, the Ukrainian command will decide to retreat to other positions. No one is going to allow encirclement, of course. The fact that they warn about the risks is understandable,” Musienko said
Musienko recalls similar panic during the battles for Avdiivka and Bakhmut. He says that back then it also seemed that encirclement was possible. However, neither then nor now will anyone make such gifts to the enemy, so our forces will withdraw from their positions, from Vuhledar.
The role of Vuhledar and what will happen after the Ukrainian Armed Forces leave
Vuhledar played an important role in the defence of both Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo, says Musienko.
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to restrain large forces of Russian troops. Thus, the enemy is gaining a certain advantage and they have been consistently advancing from the East, they managed to break through from the West, the analyst says. The price of this is Russia’s heavy losses,” Oleksandr Musienko
Yes, retreating to favourable positions is extremely important now. Moreover, Ukraine had to draw conclusions after the defence of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Musienko cites the example of Chasovyi Yar, whose positions are still held after the Ukrainian army withdrew from the town.
“It will be harder to find positions like those in Vuhledar because they are heights. And heights are the best way to deter the enemy, where there are heights, there is an opportunity to defend,” Oleksandr Musienko
There are also positions beyond Vuhledar that are currently held by our defence forces, Musiyenko adds. They are in different zones, starting from 2 km and further. The expert assured that conclusions will be drawn, and no one will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to withdraw to a clean field.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
