Autumn discounts and winter price hikes: why grape prices in Ukraine are determined by Moldova and Turkey
2 October 17:24
EXCLUSIVE
Despite the season in Ukraine, grape prices in supermarkets are formed not by the domestic market but by imports. This was stated in an exclusive commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian" by Oleksandr Khorev, the coordinator of the EastFruit Weekly Ukraine project.
He noted that for Ukrainian consumers, the current availability of grapes is temporary, as the price is expected to rise in November.
Domestic production: amateur level and lack of industrial volumes
There are many private farms in Ukraine that grow table grapes for their own needs. Some producers are trying to enter the market, but for the most part, their volumes are too small and uneven to meet the requirements of retail chains,” Khorev explained.
“Chain retailers require suppliers to supply stable batches: the same quality, caliber, grade, and guaranteed volumes throughout the season. These are standard conditions for international trade, but domestic growers are not yet able to fulfill them.
As a result, Ukrainian table grapes remain a niche product that can only be found at spontaneous markets or near shops where farmers sell small batches by hand. Such products cannot compete with imports.
In Ukraine, all table grapes are grown in the amateur segment, so to speak. Yes, there are some beautiful grapes sold right outside the shops, sometimes you can see them, but no one can produce batches of such grapes to supply to a chain,” the expert said.
Imports form the price
Oleksandr Khorev explained that the current prices for grapes that Ukrainians see in supermarkets are actually determined by supplies from abroad. Moldova and Turkey remain the biggest players, with their products available in Ukraine almost all year round.
The situation is complicated by the fact that industrial vineyard areas in Ukraine were mostly concentrated in the south, in Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions. Much of these territories are now either affected by the war or remain under occupation, which has virtually stopped the industrial production of technical and table varieties.
Why grapes are cheap now and when they will rise in price
The fall season traditionally provides relatively low prices due to massive supplies of grapes from Moldova and Turkey. However, this trend will not last long.
According to analysts, we should expect a rise in prices starting in November. The market is gradually shifting to supplies from the southern hemisphere, primarily from Chile, South Africa and Argentina. This has a significant impact on logistics: ocean transportation means not only additional costs but also time, which automatically increases the final cost of products for the consumer.
You asked when the price of grapes would rise in winter. Starting in November. Including February and the first month of spring. These are grapes from the southern hemisphere. Here we have to understand that the transportation distance from the southern hemisphere is very long. It is transported by ocean. It takes time and money. That is why grapes cannot be cheap in the northern hemisphere if they are grown in the southern hemisphere. That’s all the arithmetic for grape pricing,” Khorev summarized.
“Thus, in the winter (November – February, as well as the first month of spring), grapes inevitably become more expensive. This rule works year after year, as the geography of supply directly determines the prices on the shelves of Ukrainian supermarkets.
Read also: Agrarian restructuring: how the war changed the agricultural map of Ukraine
Prospects for Ukrainian producers
Experts analyzing the berry market note that the demand for grapes in Ukraine is consistently high, and this niche could become a growth point for farmers. However, in order to compete with imports, Ukrainian producers need to move from amateur to industrial level.
It is not only about increasing the area under vineyards, but also about creating a system of storage, sorting and logistics. Only then will it be possible to guarantee supermarkets stable batches of appropriate quality.
In the long run, this would allow Ukraine to reduce its dependence on imports, especially in the summer and fall seasons. But today, the domestic market does not play a key role in price formation: it remains tied to global supply chains.
And the current low grape prices are a temporary phenomenon caused by the season of supply from Moldova and Turkey. Starting in November, consumers will feel the price increase due to the transition to products from the southern hemisphere. For the domestic market, this means another challenge: Ukrainian producers need to move to a new level of business organization to compete with imports and influence pricing.
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Given the high demand, grapes remain a promising crop, but its price in Ukraine is currently dictated by the global market.
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