Iran’s latest preparations for war: what is Ukraine’s role in a new possible conflict?
12 August 2024 16:56
'S ANALYSIS
Western media report on Iran’s latest preparations for war with Israel. Russia is also directly involved in the preparations, according to The New York Times. Kommersant Ukrainsky
What is known so far?
Israeli intelligence reports that Iran is ready to directly attack Israel in response to the assassination of a Hamas political leader in Tehran and is likely to do so within a few days. This was reported by Axios, citing its own sources. They say the attack may take place before the negotiations on the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza, which are scheduled for 15 August.
Yuriy Romanenko, Director of the International and Domestic Policy Programme at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, commented on the situation
“Arab states are putting pressure on Hamas to start negotiations. The new head of Hamas has already made an offer to Israel to start negotiations, and this also shows that they are trying to put the brakes on this whole thing.”
Yuriy Romanenko
Ukraine is at stake
The war in the Middle East is not beneficial to anyone, says Romanenko. Israel is already running out of ammunition amid the protracted conflict in Gaza. Both Russia and the United States are working together to prevent war.
“There are agreements for the Russians to contain Iran, and the Americans are working with Israel. All of this has a certain impact on Ukraine, because the Russians are asking for Ukraine to restrict arms supplies in return, thus gaining an additional bargaining chip.”
Yuriy Romanenko
Although the Ukrainian Institute for the Future does not see a catastrophe approaching, Ukraine is still playing a role in this game, and bargaining is taking place, Romanenko says.
“In this game, Ukraine is a pawn on the political board with a number of other countries. And it is in our interest that the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate and does not go beyond the red lines. After all, then the US will have fewer opportunities to transfer weapons to Ukraine.”
Yuriy Romanenko
What can Russia give Iran?
According to The New York Times, against the backdrop of alleged preparations for a war with Israel, Iran has requested modern air defence systems from Russia. Moreover, according to the American newspaper, deliveries are already underway. However, Dmitriy Snegirev, co-chairman of the civil initiative “Pravova Sprava”, busts this myth exclusively for
“Russia does not have enough air defence systems, they are withdrawing them from the western direction, from under the border with the NATO country Finland. Also, the Russians understand that they do not have the number of air defence systems that could withstand external challenges, namely the strikes of Ukrainian UAVs.”
Dmitry Snegirev
According to him, the Russians have no echeloned air defence system and are unable to cover even the airfield where strategic bombers carrying nuclear weapons are based. So, in conclusion, Dmitry Snegirev assured that there is no point in talking about cooperation between Russia and Iran in this area.
Author: Anastasia Fedor
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