Putin’s “hellish” attacks: ISW reveals the real purpose of shelling
26 May 08:40
Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin is using massive strikes on Ukrainian cities, aggressive rhetoric and excessive Western pessimism about the situation on the battlefield as part of a multi-pronged strategy aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale and convincing the West that a Russian victory is inevitable and that further support for Ukraine is futile. In reality, the situation for the Russian army is becoming more and more critical, and these information and military attacks are an attempt to cover up the failures at the front. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Long-range strikes as a tool of pressure
The Institute recalled that in early 2025, Russia carried out at least seven major missile and drone attacks on the territory of Ukraine, demonstrating a strategic intention to keep Ukrainian society in a state of constant threat. These attacks have not only a military but also a psychological purpose – to destroy the morale of the population and reduce confidence in the ability of Western assistance to change the course of the war.
Information warfare: old rhetoric in new packaging
Against the backdrop of military defeats, Russian officials are once again voicing the same ultimatum demands for Ukraine, including concessions on sovereignty and territorial integrity.
These statements have nothing to do with reality, as they ignore the change in the balance of power since 2022 and Russia’s significant losses in both equipment and manpower.
“These claims ignore the fact that the situation on the battlefield has changed dramatically since the beginning of 2022, and that three years of losses of human resources and materials have significantly impaired the Russian military’s ability to conquer Ukraine. Russian progress has slowed considerably as Russian troops continue to suffer casualties and increasingly rely on poorly trained and equipped infantry to make gains. However, Putin is still deeply committed to diverting attention from the realities of the battlefield, as the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine is Russia’s only real hope of winning this war,” the analysts’ report says.
Propaganda at critical moments: the goal is to break the West
The Kremlin is trying to use large-scale strike packages and increasingly aggressive rhetoric to divert attention from the poor performance of the Russian military at the current stage of the war. Putin likely believes that large-scale strikes on Ukrainian cities and aggressive Russian rhetoric against NATO and Eastern European states will divert enough attention from Russia’s slow, grueling advance in eastern Ukraine.
ISW emphasizes that the Kremlin’s rhetoric always intensifies at key moments when the West is discussing new military aid packages for Ukraine. Today’s signals from Moscow are not just words, but an information operation aimed at demoralizing Ukraine’s allies.
“Putin probably intends to use long-range strikes and aggressive rhetoric to create a sense of hopelessness in Ukraine and the West, as well as to dissuade European capitals and the United States from further assistance to Ukraine by falsely portraying Russia’s victory as inevitable,” analysts say.
Kremlin’s partners: an attempt to avoid isolation
To create the illusion of geopolitical power, Russia is actively developing partnerships with China, Iran, and North Korea. This is part of Moscow’s efforts to resist diplomatic isolation and show that it is not alone in its confrontation with the West.
Why the Kremlin’s rhetoric does not match reality
Russian officials are trying to hide the reality of Russia’s growing economic and material constraints, which are increasingly hampering its ability to achieve significant victories on the battlefield.
Despite the loud claims, Russian troops have lost 177,000 men since the beginning of 2025, according to the Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky.
Russia’s defense industrial base is unable to compensate for the loss of equipment, and economic constraints make it difficult to sustain long-term military operations. The Kremlin hides these problems by emphasizing aggressive rhetoric against NATO and Eastern European countries.
The war also exacerbates the problem of labor shortages. The Kremlin is forced to attract migrant workers to keep the economy from collapsing, as mobilization has drained the labor market. This is another signal that the war is becoming more and more burdensome for Russia itself.
Putin, according to ISW, sees the discussion of peace initiatives in the West as a weakness and is trying to influence this process through aggressive rhetoric and demonstrative strikes. The Kremlin hopes that the loss of faith in Ukraine’s victory will force Western capitals to stop supporting Kyiv. But the facts show that it is the support of allies that helps Ukraine to survive and prevents Russia from realizing its goals.
