Power outages: how much will greenhouse vegetables cost in winter
27 October 15:22
The winter of 2026 in Ukraine is expected to be difficult for the greenhouse vegetable market due to power outages and rising energy prices. Ukrainian production of tomatoes, cucumbers, herbs, and cabbage is reduced to a minimum, and imported products, mainly from Turkey, are filling supermarket shelves. Oleksandr Khorev, an agricultural market expert and coordinator of the EastFruit Weekly Ukraine project, explained in a commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian" why Ukrainian vegetables are becoming “golden,” which countries will replace local producers, and how imports get to Ukraine without open ports.
No more than 10% of own vegetables
According to Oleksandr Khorev, in the period from November to February-March, and sometimes until April, the share of Ukrainian greenhouse vegetables on the market is only 10% or less. The reason is the high cost of energy needed to heat greenhouses.
“In the period from November to February-March, local production of greenhouse vegetables is practically non-existent. Perhaps up to 10%, or even less, of these products are produced by Ukrainian companies, precisely because of the high energy costs,” Khorev notes.
He emphasizes that it’s not just about electricity:
“And it’s not just electricity, it’s all kinds of energy that can be used for heating, heating greenhouses to grow produce. They are becoming more expensive every year, the hryvnia is devaluing, and the production of these products is becoming golden.”
Who supplies vegetables to Ukraine in winter
Most greenhouse vegetables are imported in winter. The main supplier is Turkey:
“Traditionally, from November to February-March or even April, we use imported products, primarily from Turkey. It just so happens that this is their main season, and they supply greenhouse vegetables to the whole of continental Europe and other countries during this period,” the expert explains.
The reason is simple: natural climatic conditions:
“Because their energy costs are exactly zero, because they are grown thanks to natural factors, climatic conditions. And there is only a market for delivery and production costs.”
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Why Ukrainian vegetables are more expensive than imported ones
Ukrainian vegetables are present in supermarkets, but they are bought only by those who consciously support local producers and are willing to pay many times more. Even if Ukrainian products are on store shelves, their price will be much higher than imported ones.
“Our products are becoming much more expensive than imported ones, although they are present and will be present in supermarkets, we hope, this season, but the price tags will vary. But once again I say that the prices are several times higher than the same Turkish products,” emphasizes Khorev.
What prices to expect in winter
According to the expert, prices can reach record levels during peak periods:
“As practice shows, wholesale prices for greenhouse vegetables reached their maximum during the peak of the New Year holidays, at the end of January, it was 150, 160 hryvnias and higher. These are generally greenhouse vegetables.”
And local Ukrainian produce, it went over 200 hryvnias.” However, the demand for such products is limited:
“And local Ukrainian produce, it has gone for 200 hryvnias. But I should note that the sales volumes are very small, in small volumes. And it’s very difficult to call it some kind of wholesale trade.”
However, such prices will be maintained only where there is minimal demand:
“They will still only go up to the limit until people stop buying, until there is at least some demand,” Khorev adds.
In the current economic environment, most Ukrainian households are cutting back on spending on non-staple foods.
“At such prices, we understand that the population, which is only getting poorer during the war, cannot afford to buy these products, which, by the way, are not the most necessary in the grocery basket,” the expert said.
Thus, the domestic market in winter will be shaped not so much by demand for Ukrainian products as by competition with imports, which will actually determine the price limit.
Can the price rise without limits?
The expert emphasizes that further growth is limited by more affordable imports.
“Therefore, prices will rise, but they will be constantly restrained by the price of imported products. If imports are cheaper, no matter how much we love Ukrainian, local, no matter how much we say that these are some greenhouse vegetables, that they are grown, maybe, not by the right technologies, but still, people will prefer more affordable products,” Khorev said.
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