Ukraine’s negotiations with Russia: can trump force Putin to peace?
10 December 2024 13:05
ANALYSIS
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that during his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and US President-elect Donald Trump in Paris on December 7, they discussed, among other things, the issue of a frozen war. Zelenskyy commented on Trump’s possible desire to freeze a full-scale war.
“We discussed the topic of a frozen conflict, in particular between us. I said that we probably want the war to end more than anyone else. Certainly, a diplomatic solution to the war will save more lives, and we want that. However, I emphasized to Presidents Macron and Trump that we need to understand: Putin does not want to end the war, so he must be forced to do so,”
– said President Zelenskyy.
Under what conditions will negotiations between Ukraine and Russia take place?
Military analyst Dmytro Snegiryov explained exclusively for "Komersant Ukrainian" that future negotiations will depend on how Trump’s team acts before and after his inauguration.
“Before the inauguration, measures can be taken to force Russia into the negotiation process, in particular, through the loss of geopolitical spheres of influence, as happened in Syria and Georgia. Thus, preconditions are being created for Russia to sit down at the negotiating table,”
– the expert noted.
However, he said the same applies to Ukraine. The analyst drew attention to the statements of high-ranking US officials, in particular Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, about the need to lower the mobilization age in Ukraine. Snegirev believes that this could be a diplomatic trap for the Ukrainian president.
“Reducing the mobilization age to 18 is a trap for Zelensky, as it will actually force Ukraine to take unpopular steps,”
– the analyst noted.
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When will Western troops be deployed in Ukraine?
Snegiryov recalled Zelensky’s statements that the President allows the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine to guarantee security while we are not in NATO. However, according to the military expert, this is impossible, because current legislation prohibits the presence of foreign military bases on the territory of Ukraine.
“How will this be circumvented? I think they will amend the Constitution. But until these changes are made, why make these statements? By and large, there is a proposal, but the practical nature of its implementation is a big question mark,”
– Snegirev said.
The analyst also emphasized that in the current situation, any statements about returning to the 2022 borders are unrealistic. And this is clear to the Biden administration, Trump, and Russia. The analyst says that the international community is exerting diplomatic pressure to start peace talks, but the conditions under which Russia will agree to come to the negotiating table remain unclear.
Is it necessary to lower the mobilization age?
Discussing the issue of lowering the mobilization age, the analyst categorically denied the possibility of such a step.
“No, there will be no lowering of the mobilization age in Ukraine, it is a trap for Zelensky, which will lead to serious political risks. The president has already stated that Ukraine will not reduce the mobilization age under pressure from its American partners,”
– Snegiryov emphasized.
He reminded that the situation at the front is determined not only by modern weapons, but also by the number of people mobilized, which creates additional difficulties for the Ukrainian army.
In addition, the analyst noted that the United States has already provided Ukraine with the necessary military and technical assistance, including $50 billion, including all the necessary components to maintain the country’s defense capability.
According to Snegirev, all the preconditions for peace talks are being created, but possible steps to lower the mobilization age and deploy foreign troops could lead to serious internal political and social consequences for Ukraine.
Thus, during the meeting between the presidents of Ukraine, France, and the United States, they discussed the possibility of a peaceful settlement of a full-scale war in Ukraine, including the option of a “frozen war.” Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that although Ukraine is most eager to end hostilities, the diplomatic process is impossible without active pressure on Russia. According to military analyst Dmytro Snegiryov, in the context of international pressure on Russia, there is a chance for negotiations, but the outcome will depend on the strategy of the new US administration.
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Author: Darina Glushchenko
