After the war in Ukraine, Russia may attack NATO countries: which territories are in question
22 May 2025 15:50
ANALYSIS FROM 
After the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine, there is a high probability that Moscow will quickly redeploy its troops to the borders with Finland, Norway, the Baltic States, and Belarus. This was reported by Bild.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur also warned of a possible increase in the threat from Russia. In a commentary to journalists, he noted that after the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, security risks in the region will only increase.
In his opinion, even in the event of a truce, Russia will not withdraw its troops, but, on the contrary, may redeploy up to 800,000 troops to other strategic areas.
According to Bild, citing Western intelligence sources, “Putin will become even more dangerous after the war in Ukraine ends.”
Western intelligence warns that after the war against Ukraine is over, the Kremlin can quickly move troops to the borders with Finland, Norway, the Baltic states, and Belarus – in fact, almost directly to the border with Poland. The necessary infrastructure for this has already been created, and, according to analysts, the only obstacle to the realization of these plans is the war in Ukraine.
According to the Bild source, who wished to remain anonymous, if a truce is established in the near future, Russia could use the large-scale West 2025 exercise as a cover for deploying troops to Belarus.
The source also recalled that it was under the guise of exercises in Belarus that Moscow pulled troops to the Ukrainian border in 2022, which ultimately preceded a full-scale invasion. This time, analysts believe, Lithuania or Poland could become potential targets.
According to the source, if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, the West 2025 exercises will likely remain just demonstrative maneuvers without further developments.
However, if the war ends on terms favorable to Russia, these exercises could escalate into the beginning of a new military campaign against us, he emphasized.
The security system after the war
Former Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Army General Mykola Malomuzh, in an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian", shared his vision of scenarios after the active phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Malomuzh is convinced that after the end of hostilities, it is critically important to create a powerful system of international monitoring and security guarantees.
After the end of hostilities, a system for monitoring the actions of the Russian Federation will be established to prevent a repeat of the aggression. And this is not just about Ukraine. It is about Europe and the world in general,” he said.
According to the general, the new world order involves uniting the efforts of countries to guarantee peace, as has already been done at the initiative of the United States. Malomuzh emphasizes that despite the fact that Russia has mobilized up to a million people, only about 700,000 of them are directly at the front – and even they do not have proper training.
Yes, Putin has formed significant forces, but they are not combat units in the full sense. They go on assaults without proper training. This exhaustion is visible,” the military expert believes.
Kremlin’s plans after the war: Is NATO under threat?
According to Malomuzh, Russia will not abandon its aggressive policy even after the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. It may try to transfer resources to the borders of NATO countries, including Finland, the Baltic states, Norway, and Poland.
Imagine – the border with Finland alone is over 1200 kilometers, and if you count other directions, it is over 1500 kilometers. This requires more than a million soldiers, which Russia does not currently have. And even more so, trained soldiers,” Malomuzh said.
He emphasized that NATO countries are actively preparing for possible scenarios, and Russia, even with aggressive intentions, will not have the strength to launch a large-scale offensive. The general is convinced that Ukraine will remain an active participant in regional security and will have a powerful army.
We will definitely not be silent. Ukraine will become part of a large defense force – together with NATO, together with Finland, Poland, Britain, Germany, and France. And Russia will not be able to implement aggressive plans in such a confrontation,” he said.
Despite all the risks, Malomuzh does not believe in the likelihood of a new full-scale Russian offensive immediately after the war in Ukraine. However, he warns against complacency.
I do not see Russia’s potential for a global war on several fronts at once. But we cannot relax. This is not the time for barbecues – it’s time to prepare the army, the frontline and the monitoring system to record all Russia’s actions online,” Mykola Malomuzh summarized.
Baltic region in danger: geographical vulnerability
Meanwhile, Roman Svitan, a military expert, pilot-instructor and colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the reserve, told KU journalists his opinion on the real threats of Russia’s invasion of the Baltic States. According to him, the Kremlin already has a well-established mechanism, and only a decrease in the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine is enough to implement it. Roman Svitan compares the location of the Russian army in the southern direction with the potential situation in the Baltic States:
“The Russians are now pressed against the Sea of Azov: 80 kilometers of depth on a 500-kilometer front is a position that cannot be held. The situation is the same in the Baltic states. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are actually sandwiched between the Baltic Sea, Russia, Belarus, and Kaliningrad,” explains Svitan.
“A particular strategic weakness is the Suwalki corridor, a narrow 100 km stretch between Poland and Lithuania.
100 kilometers is too short. Such a corridor can be easily cut in the event of an invasion. And then the Baltic states will be completely cut off from the rest of NATO,” the expert warns.
Capture scenario: the “crucified boy” and military aggression
Svitan is convinced that the Kremlin has long had a template for aggression against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the same as in the case of Donbas.
The mechanism of the invasion is simple. They will find a “crucified boy” or “beaten for speaking Russian” in Riga or Tallinn, just as it was in Donetsk. And then – military action. All the military assets of these countries will simply be dumped into the Baltic Sea,” he predicts.
According to Svitan, the only reason why this scenario has not yet been realized is the complete concentration of Russian forces on the war in Ukraine. But even a partial reduction in combat activity will make it possible to redeploy up to 250,000 troops to the Baltic States.
Believe me, 200-250 thousand troops will be enough for Russia to implement such a plan. And the Baltic states could disappear as independent states in a matter of days,” Svitan emphasizes.
The military expert calls on the Baltic states not to waste time preparing for classical defense, but to immediately rely on strike deterrence.
There is no need to prepare for trench warfare. There is only one way out: the Baltic states need ballistic missiles with a range of at least 700 kilometers. Buy KN-23s from North Korea, produce them yourself, and immediately aim them at Moscow,” Svitan advises.
According to Roman Svitan, Western countries should realize that Russia’s war is not limited to Ukraine. And without a decisive and proactive response, new fronts are only a matter of time.
Possible Russian attack on NATO countries: what is known
Since 2023, Western media, citing intelligence sources, have repeatedly warned of a possible threat from Russia to NATO countries, particularly in 2025.
Germany has expressed concern that an attack could occur in 2026 or later. At the same time, U.S. intelligence analysts believe that Moscow avoids direct confrontation with the United States and the Alliance, instead continuing to act asymmetrically, resorting to cyberattacks, destabilization through disinformation, etc. in an effort not to cross the line that would lead to a full-scale military conflict.
In December 2024, the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti reported that Russia had been practicing scenarios for an attack on Finland, Estonia, other Baltic states, and Norway. According to journalists, the Kremlin has not abandoned these plans.
In early 2025, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosyniak-Kamysz publicly acknowledged that his country considers the possibility of an armed attack from Russia a real threat.
In January of the same year, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that due to Russia’s active military buildup, there was a risk of an invasion of NATO countries in 2029-2030. He called for strengthening the Alliance’s defense capabilities to be prepared for possible developments.
In addition, on March 25, Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russia is considering at least 15 options for armed conflicts until 2045, and six of them relate to Northern Europe.
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