Politico: Without U.S. help, Ukraine’s nation could become a thing of the past
17 April 2024 15:55
“Ukraine is heading for defeat”. This was the headline of a Politico article by Jamie Dettmer, who argues that Ukraine is close to a war catastrophe and that Putin is closer than ever to his goal.
The lack of Western weapons supplies is leading to a drop in morale among the military and civilians. The Ukrainian soldier no longer believes that the West will stand behind him “as long as it takes”, the author writes:
“This promise rings hollow four weeks after our artillery unit last fired a shell,” complained one soldier from the front line.”
The mood among military commanders is also extremely pessimistic.
“Despite President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying that Ukraine is trying to find a way not to retreat, military officers privately admit that more casualties are inevitable this summer. The only question is how big they will be. Vladimir Putin has probably never been closer to his goal,”
– the newspaper writes.
Without major changes in the supply of advanced Western weapons and funding, Ukraine will not be able to liberate the territories currently held by the Russians. This will allow Putin to continue his offensive in the coming months or even years. Even if Russia fails to finish off Ukraine, the newspaper argues, a partial victory will leave Kyiv’s hopes of joining the EU and NATO in limbo.
“Increasingly, it looks as if Putin’s bet that he can overcome Ukrainian resistance and Western support may pay off,”
– the article says.
In this situation, Ukraine is forced to continue mobilisation, but more and more Ukrainians are evading the draft. The publication claims that 650,000 men of military age have left the country, most of whom crossed the border illegally.
“Two years ago, trains leaving Ukraine carried almost exclusively women, children and the elderly. This week, about a third of the passengers on one train our correspondent was travelling on were men of military age. Somehow, they managed to obtain documents allowing them to leave,”
– politico writes.
Putin can afford to wait, the newspaper concludes. He can be satisfied with a stalemate: keeping Ukraine, stuck between victory and defeat, out of NATO and the EU would still mean a victory for Russia. For Ukraine, this scenario is existentially threatening:
“If during this third year of the Russian invasion the situation does not change in the near future, the Ukrainian nation, as it exists now, will become a thing of the past.”
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