A revolution drowned in blood: what awaits the regime in Iran?
3 February 11:56
When mass protests broke out in Iran a month ago over economic problems, which quickly turned into calls for regime change, the authorities responded with one of the bloodiest crackdowns in the history of the Islamic Republic.
It is thanks to this that the regime has managed to survive. However, constant repression, economic difficulties, and growing disappointment among the population are making its existence increasingly less promising.
The US-based Iranian human rights organization HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) reported more than 5,000 deaths, more than 7,000 injuries, and more than 40,000 arrests during the protests.
The British magazine Time, citing two local health officials, wrote that the death toll could exceed 30,000.
The Iranian authorities responded by accusing the US and Israel of inciting the unrest and calling the protesters terrorists. According to Tehran’s official version, most of the dead were security forces and civilians who “fell victim to terrorists.”
These conflicting reports and the scale of the violent crackdown point to a deep crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic — an existential crisis that calls into question the regime’s continued existence. Although the protests have been suppressed for now, the country’s key problems remain unresolved.
What will happen next?
The political elite of the Islamic Republic of Iran now faces a decisive choice: maintain the status quo or open the door to structural reforms that could radically change the country’s political system.
Trita Parsi, co-founder and vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that the regime’s prospects are far from rosy.
According to him, the country is in an extremely difficult economic situation, and Iran’s geopolitical environment is much worse than before.
“…And the discord within the system itself is clearly on a whole new level,” Parsee emphasized.
The Iranian establishment has indeed been significantly weakened by the January protests and the scale of violence used by the authorities.
After the protests are suppressed, there may be a period of further tightening of security measures, followed by a cautious easing of certain social restrictions, as has happened repeatedly in the past.
At the same time, there are two key uncertainties that could radically change the functioning of the Islamic Republic: the death of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a potential US military strike, which could seriously disrupt the usual order in the country.
Iran without Khamenei
Foreign media have repeatedly reported on Ali Khamenei’s health problems, including prostate cancer. In 2014, it was confirmed that he had undergone “successful” surgery to remove a tumor. Since then, rumors of his critical condition have surfaced every year.
Igor Semyvolos, an expert from Ukraine and director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, notes that Ali Khamenei confidentially submitted a list of three candidates for the position of supreme leader to the Council of Experts in case of his sudden death.
“This is an unprecedented step aimed at speeding up the succession process, as according to the constitution, such a decision can take months. At the same time, “duplicate” appointments have been made to key military positions — in the event of the elimination of the top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or the army, their duties will automatically pass to predetermined officers. Iran has already used a similar scheme during the recent 12-day war,” the orientalist emphasized.
On the brink of war
On January 26, a US aircraft carrier group led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln was deployed to the Middle East. Its arrival “to ensure regional security and stability” was officially announced by the US Central Command.
US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Axios that he had sent a “big armada” to the shores of Iran.
On January 28, on his social network Truth Social, he directly threatened strikes on Tehran if the Iranian authorities did not agree to a new nuclear deal.
Trump said that “time is running out” and warned that the next attack would be more powerful than the strikes carried out as part of Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, when US air and naval forces attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.
The US president has repeatedly threatened military action if Tehran continues to kill civilians or execute protesters. At the same time, Washington’s allies — Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman — have called on the US to exercise restraint in order to avoid large-scale regional destabilization.
Ukraine’s position
Ukraine also expressed solidarity with the Iranian people during the mass protests. President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly condemned the violent suppression of peaceful demonstrations in Iran and expressed support for protesters demanding respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms.
In his statements, the Ukrainian leader emphasized that violence against the civilian population is unacceptable and that people’s desire for freedom and dignity is a universal value, regardless of country or region.
“Every decent person on this planet sincerely wants the people of Iran to finally be freed from the current regime, which has brought so much evil to Ukraine and other countries. It is extremely important that the world does not miss this moment when change is possible. Every leader, every country, and international organizations must intervene now and help the people remove those who are responsible for what Iran has unfortunately become,” the Ukrainian leader wrote on X.
Although the authorities have managed to temporarily suppress the protests, the fundamental causes of the social explosion have not disappeared. The economic crisis, fatigue from repression, and uncertainty about the future of the supreme authority leave Iran in a state of fragile equilibrium.
The question is not whether the country will face a new wave of turmoil, but when and under what conditions it will happen.
Author: Asif Aliyev
