Export failure and Chinese expansion: Ukraine’s trade imbalance deepens
18 March 10:09
In January 2025, Ukraine demonstrated a significant imbalance in foreign trade. This is evidenced by data from the State Statistics Service, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Thus, in January 2025, exports of goods amounted to $3.2 billion. This is 11.5% less than in the same period of 2024.
At the same time, imports grew by 8.2%, reaching $5.5 billion. As a result, the negative balance of foreign trade deepened to $2.3 billion (against $1.5 billion in January 2024).
Geographical structure of trade
Ukraine conducted foreign trade operations with partners from 189 countries. Ukraine exported the most goods to Poland ($353.3 million), Italy ($206.8 million), Spain ($201.7 million), Germany ($170.1 million), and the Netherlands ($158.1 million). In total, the EU countries accounted for 59.1% of total exports ($1.88 billion), which shows a 15.4% drop compared to January 2024.
The largest importers to Ukraine were China ($1.3 billion or 24.8% of total imports), Poland ($486.6 million), Turkey ($389 million), Germany ($378.4 million), and the United States ($328.2 million). The share of the EU countries in imports amounted to 43.3% ($2,386.4 million), which is 2.1% less than last year.
The imbalance in trade with China is particularly noteworthy, with a negative trade balance of $1.2 billion.
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Commodity structure of foreign trade
Exports were dominated by:
- Products of plant origin (29.5% of total exports), of which 22.9% are cereals.
- Fats and oils of animal or vegetable origin (15%).
- Non-precious metals and their products (10.3%).
- Prepared food products (9.3%).
- Mineral products (9.1%).
The import structure was dominated by:
- Machinery, equipment and mechanisms; electrical equipment (24.4% of total imports).
- Mineral products (13%), of which 12.7% were mineral fuels, oil and its distillation products.
- Land transport vehicles, aircraft, and floating craft (12.9%).
- Chemical products (11.7%).
- Non-precious metals and their products (5.3%).
Dynamics of foreign trade
Seasonally adjusted data show that exports decreased by 4.7% compared to December 2024, while imports increased by 3.4%. This led to a deepening of the seasonally adjusted negative balance to USD 3 billion (in December 2024, it was USD 2.7 billion).
The export-import coverage ratio amounted to only 0.58 (compared to 0.71 in January 2024), indicating a deepening imbalance in Ukraine’s foreign trade.
Some product groups showed a significant increase in exports, including pharmaceuticals (73.5%), mineral fuels (72%), and optical and photographic instruments and apparatus (29.3%). At the same time, exports in such categories as works of art (-97.7%), natural or cultured pearls, precious stones (-20.1%), and ferrous metals (-20.2%) declined significantly.
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