Failure of the season: why beer sales in Ukraine have become worse
28 October 2025 20:47
INFOGRAPHICS
The domestic beer market has entered a decline phase: despite the fact that 60% of Ukrainians consume beer and 32% do so regularly, 2025 was weaker than 2024. Retail and HoReCa recorded a drop in sales, while producers reduced production, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports citing Forbes Ukraine.
The media analytical department estimates that in January-August 2025, Ukraine brewed 94.3 million dal of beer, which is 4.3% less than in the same period in 2024 (Ukrpyvo data).
For scale: the whole of 2024 produced 140 million dal. In terms of money, the brewing industry generated about UAH 33 billion in revenue last year, and foreign trade was almost balanced: exports amounted to UAH 1.1 billion, imports to UAH 1.2 billion.
The dynamics of minus 4.3% over the eight-month period indicates a moderate market contraction after a difficult season. If the pace does not change, the result of 2025 risks being lower than in 2024. At the same time, the balance of imports and exports remains fragile: imports are slightly higher than exports in monetary terms, which increases competitive pressure on local brands.
Why consumption is falling
Experts and major players in the Ukrainian beer market identify several factors among a number of valid reasons.
1. Climate change. 2025 passed without high temperatures. Therefore, the seasonal peak did not work in full. The fact that the previous summer was marked by an abnormal heat wave exacerbated the effect of the decline.
2. War and demographics. Changes in the population and IDPs, mobilization, migration and limited presence in certain territories reduce the consumer base. The main audience – men – partially withdrew or reduced consumption.
3. Price. In 2025, beer prices rose by about 10% due to inflation, imported ingredients, and logistics.
By the way, beer-related categories are also weakening. Kvass and ciders are showing double-digit declines.
Who suffers the most in the beverage market
The keg segment and specialty stores. Their economy is based on 3 to 4 peak months (May-August), when margins reach 80 to 120%. The seasonal dip makes the entire calendar year financially unstable.
Small and medium-sized retail chains. For example, Lvivski Krany was forced to cut costs, and the Konteyner chain closed 2 out of 12 outlets in 2025. The reason is that it is becoming more difficult to negotiate leases.
Read also: Excise tax revenues increased by almost 50%: what is behind the positive dynamics
Beer market 2025: what retailers and producers are doing
To improve the financial situation, producers and retailers have begun optimizing costs and CAPEX (capital expenditures, or a company’s investment in long-term assets such as buildings, equipment, technology and intangible assets – ed.) Among the measures taken are revision of lease terms, reduction of marketing budgets, and focus on fast moving items.
There is also a shift towards weather-sensitive formats and SKUs: kegs in the heat, bottles/cans in the off-season.
The market is also trying to deal with the difficulties with the help of flexible pricing. Producers are increasingly choosing local promotions instead of large-scale campaigns to avoid burning through margins.
Demand for beer has disappeared in Ukraine: what does this mean for the market?
First of all, it means that any temperature anomaly or rainy period instantly cuts into the cash register. Added to this is the pressure on margins, when higher costs and weaker traffic drive savings on everything from marketing to IT projects.
Another trend is the revaluation of locations. Retailers and bars are moving out of “marketing” locations and preferring locations with guaranteed daily revenue.
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Forecasts of manufacturers and retailers: will there be a “rebound” in demand in 2026?
Roman Verkhovod, Commercial Development Director, told Forbes Ukraine that Carlsberg Ukraine is planning 2026 based on the average weather indicator for three years. If 2025 was below average, a warmer season in 2026 could give the market a springboard rebound.
However, the restraining factors do not disappear. The war, changes in territories and mobilization, migration, sales restrictions in certain territories, weak purchasing power – all of these remain in the market model and will affect the demand for beer among Ukrainians.
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