Targeted Strikes on Gas Hubs: What’s Behind Russia’s New Strategy Against Ukraine’s Energy System

20 October 18:01

Russia has started attacking specific gas transmission facilities that supply cities. This is part of the enemy’s changing tactics, explained Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolisnyk during the RBC-Ukraine forum “Energy that keeps Ukraine alive,” "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.

“We see that the enemy has started attacking some facilities, I won’t name them, on which the distribution of natural gas to a particular locality depends,” he said.

According to Kolisnyk, these facilities are not strategic.

“But the enemy is still testing this situation, trying to reduce the capacity of gas transportation to a specific key heating facility or other,” added the Deputy Energy Minister.

Kolisnyk also said that physical protection of these facilities is being strengthened to protect them from enemy attacks.

What is the situation with gas imports in the Ukrainian energy market?

Kolisnyk said Ukraine intends to import significant volumes of gas.

The enemy has struck a blow to production. There are consequences. And the difference of what we lost is actually the goal to replace it with imports,” he said.

The deputy minister also said that “the enemy will not stop, and he confirmed this by the fact that only in early October we received more than six strikes, and they continue.”

The official clarified: Ukraine has fulfilled the plan to pump gas into underground storage facilities by 99.5% before the heating season, but will continue to import due to falling production. This planned volume amounted to 13.2 billion cubic meters of gas.

Meanwhile, Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, said that due to Russia’s massive attacks, Ukraine has lost a significant part of its gas production infrastructure and urgently needs to finance imports.

Ukraine is currently facing a rather large deficit of natural gas. The heating season may have to be postponed to a later date,” Omelchenko said.

According to him, the deficit can only be covered by purchases abroad:

“If Ukraine finds an additional 2 billion euros somewhere and buys 4 billion cubic meters of gas somewhere in the winter, I think there will be no big problems.

The expert noted that the government should turn to partners, including the EBRD, the European Investment Bank, and EU funds, to raise funds.

“The issue must be resolved now and the money must be urgently sought,” he emphasized.

Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure: what Naftogaz says

A few days earlier, Natalia Boyko, a member of the Supervisory Board of Naftogaz of Ukraine , spoke to Bloomberg .

She de facto confirmed Bloomberg’s report that on October 3, Ukraine lost about 60% of its daily gas production as a result of a massive Russian strike.

At the Kyiv International Economic Forum, the official said that she would not disclose the figures, but would not refute them either. Boyko also reminded that during the previous attack in February, production dropped by about half, some of the volumes have already been restored, and this is now the No. 1 priority. The second direction is to increase imports. At the same time, Naftogaz has not yet officially commented on the scale of losses after the last attack.

Russia is trying to paralyze and destroy Ukraine’s gas infrastructure: context

In recent weeks, key fields and facilities of Ukrgasvydobuvannya in Kharkiv and Poltava regions, which accounted for more than half of the national production, have been under attack. Some of the infrastructure is so damaged that repairs may take months.

There are currently about 13 billion cubic meters of gas in underground storage facilities, which covers short-term needs, but by the end of winter, it will probably be necessary to buy fuel on the European market.

This scenario is confirmed by former Energy Minister Olha Buslavets. She reminded: “Ukraine has already informed its allies that under current conditions it will have to import 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of March. This volume will amount to about 20% of annual consumption and will require spending almost €1.9 billion.

Attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure: what are the risks for households and businesses?

The shift in drone and missile strikes to gas supply hubs means that the likelihood of regional shortages is increasing. For households, this means the risk of short-term heat supply interruptions and the need to switch to electric heating during peak hours, which increases the load on the electricity sector. For businesses, it means potential downtime in energy-intensive industries, increased costs for backup solutions (diesel generators, electric boilers, heat guns), and the inevitable logistical costs of delivering and installing temporary solutions.

This heating season, municipalities will have to balance between emergency repairs and maintaining the minimum acceptable thermal conditions in social facilities. This, in turn, may require prompt reallocation of budgets, accelerated procurement procedures and the expansion of emergency teams.

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Will flexibility, reserves and savings save the heating season?

Energy experts believe that from the point of view of market architecture, the key to Ukraine’s sustainability this winter is the flexibility of supply and reserves of natural gas.

Imports should be diversified by routes and counterparties, and system management should include an expanded set of maneuverable tools: quick switches, temporary bypasses 1 at distribution stations, and accelerated fault diagnostics.

At the level of consumption, the saving factor will continue to work: the experience of previous seasons shows that a moderate decrease in indoor temperature and weather-dependent control of heating systems have a tangible effect on unloading the grid during periods of tension.

Therefore, the baseline scenario for the winter is to operate in a high-risk environment with a priority on the rapid restoration of local nodes, prompt logistics of spare parts, and timely communication with the public.

In addition, it should not be forgotten that transparent messages from the national energy operator about possible temporary restrictions and routes to circumvent them reduce social turbulence and help consumers plan their behavior: from setting thermostats to preparing home heat reserves.

In summary, we can say that the enemy’s new tactics in attacking Ukraine’s gas system do not change the fundamental logic of energy supply, but require the system to be more maneuverable, and the market to be ready for continuous imports and prompt demand management. Ukraine is entering the season with an almost completed plan for injections into UGS facilities and a set of measures to protect weaknesses. However, the sustainability of this configuration directly depends on the pace of restoration of facilities and the rhythm of external supplies.