Putin confident he will seize Kherson and Zaporizhzhia by end of year before talking to Trump – Bloomberg
19 May 09:34
Vladimir Putin is extremely optimistic ahead of a phone call with Donald Trump scheduled for Monday. Bloomberg reports this with reference to a source close to the Russian president, "Komersant Ukrainian" informs.
Putin is convinced that his troops will be able to break through the Ukrainian defense by the end of the year and completely seize four Ukrainian regions that Russia considers its own, the newspaper claims.
Putin’s confidence means that he is unlikely to offer Trump any significant concessions during their conversation. European leaders are concerned that the American president may try to impose a peace deal despite the lack of real steps from Moscow.
“Unfortunately, with the current state of the war, we don’t see much incentive for Russia to agree to a ceasefire,”
– said Michael Coffman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, during a conference in Tallinn.
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European leaders are trying to prevent a hasty conclusion of the deal. During Friday’s conversation, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer tried to convince Trump that Putin is only stalling. They hope that Trump will realize the risk of looking weak if he imposes a bad deal on Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also participated in this conversation, but according to a European official, he appeared depressed and exhausted. Zelenskyy and his European allies believed they had a promise from Trump to impose new sanctions on the Kremlin if Putin refused to abide by the ceasefire from last Monday, but this did not happen.
On Sunday, Russia carried out one of its largest drone attacks against Ukraine since the start of the war, while Zelenskiy held diplomatic meetings on the sidelines of the Vatican mass for the enthronement of Pope Leo XIV. In particular, he met with US Vice President J.D. Vance for the first time since their February confrontation in the Oval Office.
Putin’s confidence in Russia’s prospects on the battlefield contradicts Western assessments. Having suffered huge casualties in more than three years of fighting, Russia does not have the capacity to achieve its goals, European officials say.
“The likelihood that Russia will achieve its goals of conquering these four regions by the end of this year is very low,”
– said Ben Barry, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The risk for Putin is that he may overestimate his strength and provoke Trump to follow through on his threat of additional sanctions. U.S. officials have privately signaled to European counterparts that Trump is considering moving forward with a sanctions bill drafted by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham if Russia does not change its position.
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