Russia prepares full occupation of four regions in two months: which regions are under threat
14 July 10:07
Russian President Vladimir Putin has openly told US President Donald Trump that he is planning a “major offensive” and full occupation of four regions of Ukraine in the near future. This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to Axios.
In a telephone conversation with the US president, the Russian leader directly warned that he plans to escalate hostilities in Ukraine within 60 days.
“He wants to take everything,” Trump told French President Emmanuel Macron shortly after speaking with Putin.
The goal of the summer offensive of the Russian Armed Forces is to establish full control over 4 Ukrainian regions. These are Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Russia considers them “its own” and has even passed a number of acts to enshrine this in its own legislation.
The scheme of “joining” the occupied Ukrainian regions to the Russian Federation is almost identical in each of the regions. After the occupation of a part of the region, the Russian Federation appoints its own leaders. After a while, a “dual-currency zone” is introduced in the regions controlled by the Russian Armed Forces: people in towns and villages start paying in Russian rubles, which eventually completely displace the hryvnia from the market.
Subsequently, Vladimir Putin signs a decree simplifying the granting of Russian citizenship to residents of the territories captured by the military. In practice, this means that the local population is forced to obtain passports of the occupying country. Moreover, children born in the occupied territories after February 24, 2022, automatically receive Russian citizenship.
The penultimate step is a “referendum” in which local residents allegedly vote for their region to become part of the occupying country. After that, Moscow legislates the results of the “expression of will” at its level.
What you need to know about the “summer offensive” of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine
The summer offensive launched by Russia in May 2025 was the bloodiest stage for it during the entire period of the full-scale war against Ukraine. This is stated in the analytical material of the British media outlet The Economist. According to the publication, in just two months – from May 1 to early July – the Russian army lost approximately 31,000 soldiers in the line of duty. This is an absolute record for the entire time of the invasion and evidence of the incredible intensity of the fighting that accompanied the summer phase of the conflict.
According to journalists’ estimates, Russia’s total losses range from 900,000 to 1.3 million people, of which 190-350,000 are irrecoverable losses, i.e. killed or missing. The rest are wounded, disabled, and those who left for other reasons. This confirms that, despite the Kremlin’s official statements about controlling the situation at the front, the real scale of losses has become catastrophic.
To calculate the losses, The Economist analysts used a complex model based on a cross-analysis of open sources. These include satellite imagery, reports from Western intelligence services, assessments by independent military experts, as well as videos and photos from social media. Particular attention was paid to the analysis of unit rotation, filling the mobilization reserve, and the number of graves in new cemeteries recorded from space.
Against the backdrop of increasing losses, the Russian military command continues to attempt an offensive, despite the decline in the effectiveness and morale of its troops. According to the Ukrainian military, many Russian units are being thrown into attacks without proper training and support, which further increases losses.
The summer offensive has shown that the strategy of attrition chosen by Russia is backfiring on itself. The resources spent on holding the front line and advancing a few hundred meters are becoming increasingly expensive – not only in financial terms, but also in human lives. Ukraine, despite the difficult situation with weapons and delays in Western aid, continues to hold the line, inflicting losses on the enemy that even the most pessimistic forecasts considered unrealistic a year ago.
Analysts emphasize that this level of losses cannot but have political consequences in Russia itself. Internal tensions are rising, and social media and even some pro-Kremlin bloggers are increasingly publishing critical posts recognizing the scale of the tragedy. All of this shows that the summer offensive was not only a military but also a moral failure of Russian strategy.
Offensive – 2025: what Ukrainian intelligence says
The head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov , commented on the so-called “summer offensive” of the Russian Federation, which has been actively discussed in the Ukrainian and international media recently. According to Budanov, it is not so much the beginning of a new stage of hostilities as a logical continuation of the Russian army’s overall offensive campaign, which has not actually stopped since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
In particular, the Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine emphasized that combat actions have been going on for a long time on the southeastern borders of Dnipro region. According to him, the enemy’s activity in this direction is part of Russia’s overall strategy – attempts to expand the front again, put pressure on the rear regions and force Ukraine to disperse its forces.
However, Budanov noted that there is currently no immediate threat to the city of Dnipro itself. The Ukrainian defense forces are controlling the situation, strengthening defensive lines, and military intelligence is closely monitoring the movements of enemy units. Any attempts to break through or change the front line are promptly recorded and receive an adequate response.
In addition, the Chief of Intelligence emphasized that Russian troops, despite the general offensive pressure, suffer significant losses and do not have sufficient concentration of forces to realize a large-scale breakthrough in this direction. The enemy is trying to act on the principle of “massive pressure” by throwing fire and people at the front line, but the Ukrainian army is demonstrating high resilience and effective defense.
Budanov also noted that the main goal of the Kremlin’s information campaign about the “summer offensive” is to sow panic among the population and raise doubts about Ukraine’s ability to defend the central regions. That is why it is so important to maintain information restraint and trust in the defense forces.
According to Budanov, the situation is difficult but under control. Ukraine is preparing for a prolonged confrontation, mobilizing resources and strengthening its combat positions. He also thanked the residents of Dnipropetrovs’k region for their endurance and support of the Armed Forces, urging them not to panic and to follow only official reports.
Thus, despite the alarming signals about the possible expansion of hostilities in the direction of Dnipro, there are currently no reasonable grounds for concern about an immediate threat to the city. The Ukrainian military continues to hold the line and is preparing for any development.
Escalation of hostilities in Ukraine as seen by foreign media
The last stage of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, which began in May 2025, has been the subject of numerous analytical materials in leading international media. All of them agree that despite the Kremlin’s efforts and troop build-up, the so-called “summer offensive” has not brought any strategic success and has only exacerbated the crisis within Russia itself.
Offensive stalls, Ukraine counterattacks
CNN notes that the Russian offensive is moving much slower than expected. Despite the concentration of significant forces near Pokrovsk – more than 111,000 troops compared to 70,000 a year ago – the Russian army has failed to achieve a breakthrough. According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, the wave of attacks is fading, and in some regions, particularly in Sumy, Ukrainian forces have already launched counterattacks.
In this context, the publication also draws attention to the development of the Ukrainian defense industry, which is gradually reducing dependence on Western aid. At the same time, the war is becoming too expensive for Russia itself. According to journalists, about 40% of the Russian budget goes to military spending, which exceeds 6% of GDP. This causes inflation, which does not yet have a critical impact on the Russian army, but creates long-term risks.
Read also: Syrsky spoke about Russia’s “summer offensive”
Moral decline of the Russian army
The Washington Post analyzes in detail the internal problems of the Russian armed forces. The newspaper writes about chaos in the command, corruption, lack of ammunition and equipment, mass desertion and complete moral degradation of the army. Soldiers have to buy ammunition on their own, and commanders often demand bribes to withdraw them from the front line. Despite this, Russia is actively continuing its mobilization, luring recruits with the promise of cash rewards of more than 3 million rubles.
Ukraine is at risk without Western help
The Financial Times warns in its column that both Russia and Ukraine are “tired” of prolonged fighting, but it is Ukraine that may be the first to face critical exhaustion if it does not receive a new wave of military aid. Particularly worrisome is the signal of Putin’s potential plans to seize Odesa, which would effectively deprive Ukraine of its sea route for exports.
Thus, according to leading analysts, Russia is suffering huge losses, but it will not stop trying to attack. Ukraine, on the other hand, is holding back the enemy through resilience, technological breakthroughs, and international support, while remaining critically dependent on its allies for decisive action.
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