Russia is increasing spending on security forces and propaganda in preparation for internal protests, says Pendzin
16 January 14:15
The Russian government is planning a big increase in funding for security forces and propaganda in its 2026 budget, which shows they’re getting ready for possible internal unrest. This is what economist Oleg Pendzin said in an interview with the YouTube channel "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to Pendzin, an analysis of the 2026 budget approved and signed by the Russian president demonstrates the Kremlin’s clear priorities.
“If you look closely at the Russian budget for 2026, there are several areas that have seen a significant increase in funding. These are the Russian Guard, the Russian National Police, and propaganda,” the economist noted.
He drew particular attention to the sharp increase in spending on the information sphere.
“Spending on propaganda has increased 1.8 times,” Pendzin emphasized.
The Kremlin is preparing for social unrest
According to the expert, this redistribution of funds indicates expectations of mass discontent within Russia.
“They are already preparing for social discontent and civil protests,” he explained.
At the same time, Pendzin stressed that in the absence of a real opposition, any protests could be chaotic and violent.
“All this will turn into a terrible Russian riot, which will be suppressed by extremely horrific methods,” the economist noted.
Commenting on the situation with possible unrest in late summer and early fall, Pendzin acknowledged that several factors are contributing to destabilization. These include Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, increased demand for fuel due to the war and harvest, and falling global oil prices.
“This has caused a kind of shortage in the market within the aggressor state itself,” he said.
Oil is key to Russia’s budget
Pendzin emphasized the critical dependence of the Russian budget on oil revenues.
“According to rough estimates, 35% of direct and up to 50% of indirect revenues of the Russian budget are related to oil,” the economist said.
That is why any strikes on oil infrastructure are of strategic importance.
“Any impact on the Russian Federation’s oil business will reduce budget revenues,” he stressed.
Separately, Pendzin drew attention to the role of China, which, according to him, does not provide Russia with free support.
