Russia is increasing spending on security forces and propaganda in preparation for domestic protests, says Pendzin
16 January 14:15
YOUTUBE
Russian authorities are allocating significant increases in funding for law enforcement agencies and propaganda in the 2026 budget, indicating preparations for potential domestic unrest. This was stated by economist Oleg Pendzin in an interview with the YouTube channel "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to Pendzin, an analysis of the 2026 budget, which has been approved and signed by the Russian president, reveals the Kremlin’s clear priorities.
“If you look closely at the Russian budget for 2026, there are several areas where funding has increased significantly. These are the Russian Guard, the Russian National Police, and propaganda,” the economist noted.
He drew particular attention to the sharp increase in spending on the information sector.
“Spending on propaganda has increased by 1.8 times,” Pendzin emphasized.
The Kremlin is preparing for a social explosion
According to the expert, this reallocation of funds indicates an expectation of mass discontent within Russia.
“They are already preparing for public discontent and civil protests,” he explained.
At the same time, Pendzin stressed that in the absence of a real opposition, any protests could take on a chaotic and violent nature.
“All of this will turn into a horrific Russian uprising, which will be suppressed using extremely brutal methods,” the economist noted.
Commenting on the situation regarding possible unrest in late summer and early fall, Pendzin acknowledged that several factors are contributing to destabilization. Among them are Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, increased demand for fuel due to the war and the harvest season, as well as falling global oil prices.
“This has caused a sort of shortage in the market within the aggressor state itself,” he noted.
Oil—the key to the Russian budget
Pendzin emphasized the Russian budget’s critical dependence on oil revenues.
“According to rough estimates, 35% of direct revenues and up to 50% of indirect revenues in the Russian budget are linked to oil,” the economist stated.
That is precisely why any strikes against oil infrastructure are of strategic importance.
“Any impact on the Russian Federation’s oil business will reduce budget revenues,” he emphasized.
Separately, Pendzin drew attention to the role of China, which, in his words, does not provide Russia with free support.
