Russia offers India a discount on its oil
8 August 09:10
Russia is offering its crude oil to Indian buyers at discounted prices amid threats of fines from the United States. This was reported by Bloomberg, citing data from the analytical company Kpler Ltd, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to the company, the price of Urals, Russia’s flagship oil brand, is more than $5 per barrel lower than Dated Brent. For comparison, two weeks ago these prices were almost at the same level. Jcrskmrb Brent, according to OilPrice, is currently priced at $66.24 per barrel, so the Russians are ready to sell their oil to India at a price close to $60 per barrel.
At the same time, according to the Ministry of Finance, on August 6, Russia offered its oil to all other buyers at a price of $64.96 per barrel.
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Prices will go down, but not much
Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, predicts that the downward trend in Russian oil prices will continue due to uncertainty surrounding the US actions. This uncertainty will encourage public and private refiners in India to take a more cautious stance.
An additional factor will be the planned maintenance of Russian enterprises, which is why companies are trying to increase supplies in the period from August to October by selling stocks before the start of the production shutdown.
At the same time, Kpler notes that replacing Russia’s 37% market share will be costly for Indian refiners, so a complete cessation of imports is unlikely. Indian state-owned companies are considering suspending purchases, while private players continue to receive shipments, albeit at a slower pace.
According to Kpler, India’s crude oil imports from the United States have increased to about 225 thousand barrels per day since May, almost doubling since the beginning of 2025.
What oil price is critical for Russia
It is well known that Russia is critically dependent on its energy exports. First of all, on oil exports. In 2024, the federal budget revenues from oil sales amounted to 9.19 trillion rubles (approximately $89.4 billion). Total budget revenues for this period amounted to 36.71 trillion rubles. Thus, the share of oil revenues in the total structure of Russian budget revenues in 2024 was approximately 25%
This indicates that, despite international sanctions and attempts to diversify revenue sources, oil remains a key source of financing for the Russian budget.
Russian Urals oil is traditionally sold at a lower price than Brent and WTI, and it is also subject to additional factors that raw materials from other countries do not experience, namely Western sanctions. However, during all three years of the full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia has been successfully selling its oil – its main buyers today are China and India.
The federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2025 included an oil price of $70, but, as we wrote above, on August 6, the price of Russian Urals was $64.96 per barrel. Against this background, the Russian state budget deficit has already amounted to 4.88 trillion rubles, or 2.2% of GDP, and more than a trillion of this has been accumulated over the past month. This hole in the treasury is almost 4.5 times higher than in the same period in 2024, when the deficit was 1.1 trillion rubles, or 0.5% of GDP.
So far, market analysts’ forecasts do not promise Russia any serious problems related to the oil price, as it still has a very large backlash for sales. According to economic expert Oleg Pendzin, even a price of $50 per barrel is still acceptable for Russia.
“Currently, the direct cost of Russian oil production is about $37-38 per barrel. This is the direct cost. The critical figure for Russia is the sales price of $45,”
– explained the economist exclusively for
So Russia can offer India even bigger discounts. And as the
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