russia has reduced the intensity of its attacks: what may be behind it
10 December 2024 20:47
Recently, Russia has begun to attack Ukraine with less intensity using Shahed drones. Why this happened and what this trend might indicate, [comersant] asked military expert Dmitry Snegirev.
According to him, there are several factors at play here. The first one is external, as there are currently restrictions on dual-use products from China, which has affected the Russian military-industrial complex’s ability to produce drones.
“And, accordingly, I do not exclude an element of military and political pressure from the United States to de-escalate the situation at the time of the shelling of the Ukrainian energy structure. The point is that after permission was granted to strike deep into Russian territory using Western weapons, primarily ATAKAMS, the Ukrainian side’s power system was in the target zone. And given the climatic conditions of Russia and the readiness of its housing and utilities sector for the heating season, this should have influenced the decision of the Russian military and political leadership on further actions at the time of the shelling of the Ukrainian energy system,” Snegiryov explained.
According to the expert, the strike deep into Russia made it clear to the enemy what an energy collapse is, which millions of Russians could experience. In fact, this would have led to certain social upheavals within Russia itself, which is an undesirable scenario for the Russian dictator.
“That is, there are too many factors. And I would not reject any of them. But at the same time, we should not say that Russia has abandoned the tactics of missile and drone terror of Ukraine,” the military expert said.
He emphasized that it is possible that Russia may be stockpiling weapons, primarily cruise and ballistic missiles, given that the Russians have somewhat limited capabilities to restore their missile potential.
“Well, we should not exclude the Syrian events (the uprising in Syria against the regime of Bashar al-Assad – ed.) from this context,” Snegirev said.
He explained that “Iranian drones” is a conventional name. They were produced in Syria. There were factories there, and these factories were run by Hezbollah and pro-Iranian group specialists, and Russian specialists, respectively. Later, these drones were delivered through a Syrian port to the territory of the occupied Crimea, from where they were launched from Cape Chauda into Ukraine.
“So, the recent events in Syria, namely the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and, accordingly, the devastating strikes of Israeli aircraft on military targets in Syria, could have seriously affected the logistics, namely the production and supply of these shaheds for the needs of the Russian army. This, in my opinion, is not the last factor, if not the main one. Because I emphasize once again that the production of these shaheds was concentrated in Syria,” summarized Dmitry Snegirev.
