Russia amasses troops for offensive in Kharkiv region

6 May 2024 12:33

In the three border regions of Russia – Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod – not only the deployment but also the strengthening of the “Sever” group of troops continues. This was reported by military observer Konstantin Mashovets, according to "Komersant Ukrainian"

The observer notes that the Sever group currently has:

50.1 thousand military personnel;
up to 395 tanks;
928 armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) of all types and kinds;
up to 992 units of artillery systems (AS) of cannon artillery, starting with 100-mm calibre and including 120-mm mortars;
123 units of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS);
– 4-6 Iskander missile systems.

According to the expert, there have been certain signs of the enemy’s preparation for active offensive actions in these areas recently. One of these signs is the relocation of other units there.

“Large-scale (of course, up to certain limits) movement of newly formed units of the 44th Army Corps (AC) from the Luhansk Military District to the Sever Military Division continues. As of the evening of 3 May, at least 12 railway echelons with personnel, weapons and military equipment of the 30th motorised rifle regiment (msp) of the 72nd motorised rifle division (md) and the 128th separate motorised rifle brigade (omsbr) were formed and sent,” Mashovets writes,

– mashovets writes.

The Russians have already moved up to 1,300 military personnel and up to 125 pieces of weapons and equipment, including tanks, armoured personnel carriers, armoured vehicles, self-propelled artillery systems, towed howitzers and MLRS, as well as at least 55 additional trucks and special vehicles. In total, the Russians plan to move up to 3,700-3,750 military personnel and 450-455 pieces of weapons. At the same time, the deadline for the deployment of these troops has been slightly shifted from 7-8 May to 12-13 May.

Another sign of a possible offensive is the intensification of shelling of the Ukrainian border and intensified reconnaissance activities.

“The enemy has begun to shell our border in an ‘uneven’ manner. For example, in Sumy region, it is 20-25 attacks per day (whereas in Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions, it hits border villages 8-10 times a day. Two Russian Su-25s have recently carried out air strikes on our territory in the area of Krasny Khutir (Chernihiv region) and Seredyna-Buda (Sumy region). At the same time, the number of flights of Russian reconnaissance UAVs in the Kharkiv region has increased dramatically – up to 20 a day…”

– he added.

Moreover, the Russians have begun to regularly deploy Su-35S fighters to patrol the border area, although they had not done so before due to the reality of its being hit by Ukrainian air defence systems.

“That is, the enemy is actively bombarding Sumy and Chernihiv regions with artillery, occasionally conducting air strikes there, but at the same time conducting intensive aerial reconnaissance in the Kharkiv direction and providing air cover for the operational deployment of the 44th AC troops, which is quite risky for them (and the use of Su-35S fighters in close proximity to the state border with Ukraine cannot be described in any other way). The most trained Russian saboteurs are also hanging around in the same place, what a “coincidence”…”

– the expert concludes.

He noted that Russia is preparing for some kind of action to the north and northwest of Kharkiv, but less than 4,000 additional Russian troops are clearly not enough to form a strike force capable of covering Kharkiv and even breaking through the prepared positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the north and northwest of it:

“In my opinion, we should prepare for offensive (or rather raid) actions in the tactical zone (and these are the border areas of Kharkiv and, less likely, Sumy regions) by a certain set of Russian troops from the Sever military group.

Mashovets believes that a Russian offensive with available forces would be aimed at diverting attention and concentrating part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“The main [goal] is to make it impossible for the Ukrainian command to use its reserves (especially strategic ones) in other, more important operational areas for the enemy. By launching a ‘limited offensive’ in the Kharkiv region, the enemy clearly hopes to pin down a significant number of Ukrainian troops under the threat of a ‘breakthrough to Kharkiv’… And, obviously, these actions of the enemy will begin at the most convenient and necessary moment for him…”

– the observer summed up.