Russian troops approaching Sumy: will they be able to capture the city?
3 June 08:42
Russian occupation forces are intensifying their offensive in the northern part of Sumy region, trying to expand the front line. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russians are advancing in three directions to the north and northeast of the city of Sumy, but their chances of capturing the city remain low, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
Russian offensive intensifies in Sumy region
According to ISW, Russian occupation forces are stepping up efforts to expand the front in the northern part of Sumy region, focusing activity on three directions at once – north and northeast of the city of Sumy.
Geolocation video footage from June 2 confirms that Russians are advancing north of Andriivka and northeast of Yablunivka.
The Russians also claim that their troops have captured the settlements of Oleksiyivka, Novomykhailivka and Kindrativka, and have advanced into the northern part of Andriivka, west of Yablunivka and Kostyantynivka.
“Russian troops recently captured Oleksiyivka, Novomykhailivka and Kindrativka (all north of Sumy) and advanced into the northern part of Andriivka, as well as west of Yablunivka and Kostyantynivka,” Russian military bloggers reported.
The ground attacks are concentrated in three areas: north of Sumy toward Andriivka, northeast toward Yunakivka, and toward Myropillya.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that units of the Russian 18th Motorized Rifle Division (11th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District) and the 177th Marine Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) are taking part in the fighting on the Konstantinovka-Kindrativka and Volodymyrivka-Oleksiyivka lines.
“Elements of the 18th motorized rifle division and the 177th marine regiment are engaged in combat on the Kostyantynivka-Kindrativka line and the Volodymyrivka-Oleksiyivka line,” said Mashovets.
In addition, units of the 104th, 234th and 237th airborne regiments (76th Airborne Division) are operating on the Loknya-Yunakivka line and west of Loknya. To reinforce the grouping, the Russians redeployed units of the 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade from the Lyman and Chasovyi Yar areas.
Russian plans: buffer zone and artillery strikes
Russian officials have repeatedly stated the need to create a buffer zone in the northern part of Sumy region. Recently, they have intensified information campaigns to justify the attack on Sumy. According to ISW, the Russian occupation forces are seeking to advance to the Khotyn-Khrapivshchyna line, which is located 12-15 kilometers from the city of Sumy. This would allow the Russians to shell the city with cannon artillery.
“Russian occupation forces are likely trying to advance to the Khotyn-Khrapivshchyna line, which would allow them to operate within cannon artillery range throughout the city of Sumy,” ISW said.
The Russian occupation forces likely intend to use intensified drone and artillery strikes on the city to support their further advance toward Sumy and are likely seeking to conduct an offensive operation to capture the city in the future.
Will Sumy be captured: ISW analysis
Despite the intensification of the offensive, ISW assesses the chances of the Russians capturing Sumy as low. Russian troops have not captured a Ukrainian city of more than 100,000 people since July 2022, indicating their limited ability to conduct large-scale offensives.
“ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are unlikely to capture the city of Sumy in the short to medium term, as Russian forces have not captured a Ukrainian city with a pre-war population of over 100,000 since July 2022,” ISW emphasizes.
Sumy remains an important strategic objective, but Ukrainian forces are actively resisting the offensive, making it difficult for the Russians to advance.
