EU Enlargement: Ukraine Risks Losing Its Priority
30 March 09:41
New, more “attractive” candidates may join the queue for EU membership, potentially pushing Ukraine aside. These are economically developed countries that meet most of the EU’s criteria.
This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to Politico.
As the publication notes, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and amid doubts about the reliability of the U.S., even wealthy countries such as Iceland and Norway have begun to reconsider the possibility of EU membership.
“EU membership has always offered stability and prosperity to European countries. Now we see that those outside the EU are increasingly realizing that, in a world of competing influences, a seat at the EU negotiating table also offers enhanced security and protection,” said EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos.
According to sources, one of the key factors driving this shift has been the policy of U.S. President Donald Trump following his return to the White House in 2025.
“Now is not the best time to act alone; Trump is changing everything,” a Norwegian official said.
In particular, Iceland could be the first to resume accession talks, as the country has accelerated preparations for a referendum.
New Attractive Candidates
At the same time, for current EU members, the accession of wealthier countries appears more attractive than expansion at the expense of poorer Eastern European states, including Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, and Montenegro.
“These financial considerations mean it will be difficult to convince current members that these poorer countries should be admitted. Existing members will receive an even smaller share of EU funds,” the article notes.
In addition to economic factors, European governments are also weighing political risks.
“We don’t want a repeat of Hungary or Slovakia. We don’t know what will happen in these new countries in 10–15 years. And then we might find ourselves in a situation where we have another [Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán],” says one diplomat.
In contrast, countries with established democratic institutions, such as Norway and Iceland, have significantly better chances of rapid accession.
“Of course, it would be easier for Iceland or Norway to join. They are practically 80 percent of the way there” in terms of incorporating EU laws into their legal systems. If they want to join—and that depends entirely on them—it could happen very quickly,” an EU representative told the publication.
Trump is changing everything
Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on Washington’s willingness to come to the aid of its allies, and now countries that previously relied on NATO membership to ensure their security are seeking alternatives. Similar to NATO’s Article 5, the EU Treaty contains a clause on mutual defense—Article 42.7.
Norway applied for EU membership in 1992 but rejected it in a referendum two years later. Although a majority of Norwegians still do not support EU membership, the number of supporters has been growing over the past 18 months. Trump’s anger toward Norway over the decision not to award him the Nobel Peace Prize also appears to have contributed to the shift in public opinion.
Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 amid the financial crisis, but froze negotiations in 2013 following a dispute over fishing policy and changing economic conditions. It withdrew its application in 2015.
Mutual Defense
Of course, Icelanders and Norwegians may well decide against joining the EU, especially if the Trump administration tones down its bellicose rhetoric. Montenegro and Ukraine may well conclude their negotiations before Oslo or Reykjavik make a decision.
Or the capitals that have blocked any EU expansion since Croatia’s accession in 2013 may continue to veto any new members.
However, caught between Trump’s America, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and Xi Jinping’s China, current EU members may also decide that there is safety in numbers, Politico concludes.
