Potato market in Ukraine: why prices fell and what to expect next
11 March 2025 16:22
ANALYSIS
Recently, potato prices in Ukraine have fallen significantly. While a kilogram of this product used to cost up to UAH 35, today it is sometimes sold at UAH 20 per kilogram in the capital’s markets. At the same time, the price dynamics of other vegetables remains largely unchanged. "Komersant Ukrainian" asked experts what is happening on the potato market and what to expect from the prices of this basic product for Ukrainians in the near future.
Current price situation
According to Bohdan Dukhnytskyi, a leading researcher at the Institute of Agrarian Economics, Doctor of Economics, the wholesale price of potatoes in the main Ukrainian markets, such as Shuvar and Stolychnyi, is about 25 UAH/kg. However, in supermarkets, where there is a retailer’s markup, potatoes are still sold at a higher price – an average of 35 UAH/kg.
“So, the vast majority of consumers have not yet felt the reduction in the price of this product,”
– Dukhnytsky said in an exclusive commentary .
Imports of early potatoes in January exceeded the whole of last year
One of the factors affecting the market is imports. According to Dukhnytsky, in 2024 Ukraine imported 51 thousand tons of potatoes, almost four times more than in 2023. However, given that the annual food consumption of potatoes in the country is 5-6 million tons, these imports are insignificant and do not have a significant impact on the overall market situation.
However, the factor of early potato imports is now the most important. And in January, it already exceeded all imports of early potatoes for the previous year.
“Last year, imports of early potatoes amounted to 10.9 thousand tons, and almost all of this volume was purchased in the first half of the year. The largest purchases were made in Egypt (3.8 thou tons), Azerbaijan (2.9 thou tons), Greece (2.0 thou tons) and North Macedonia (1.8 thou tons). According to the available operational data, in January 2025, a total of 13.7 thsd tonnes of potatoes were imported,”
– the expert explains.
In January 2025, according to the economist, 13.7 thousand tons of potatoes have already been imported.
What are the forecasts for the potato market?
In early 2025, the price of potatoes remained relatively stable without significant fluctuations. However, in the spring, stocks of the product in storage will begin to decline, which may lead to a gradual rise in price.
“It is expected that potatoes will show the usual dynamics of gradual rise in price, given the typical trends for this time of year,”
– notes Dukhnytskyi.
Regarding the forecasts for the 2025 harvest, the expert emphasizes that it is difficult to give an accurate estimate. Last year, the initial forecasts changed significantly after the August harvest, when it became apparent that the quantity and quality of potatoes was worse than expected. This immediately led to a rise in prices and even import purchases.
“According to the forecast estimates of the Institute of Agrarian Economics, if there are no sharp weather changes, in 2025 we can expect a typical potato harvest of 20 million tons,”
– emphasizes the expert.
Young potatoes: what is changing in the market?
Economist Oleksandr Okhrimenko draws attention to the change in consumer habits and the development of domestic production of new potatoes.
“The seasonal factor plays an important role. In winter, people consume more old potatoes, but with the warming, they switch to young cabbage, onions, and salads. Business is quick to respond to this,”
– explains Okhrimenko.
At the same time, he emphasizes that greenhouse farming in Ukraine is developing very quickly. Many farmers have started growing young potatoes in greenhouses, which has reduced dependence on imports.
“Previously, young potatoes were imported en masse from Israel and Egypt. Now they still import some, but it is easier to buy local products. Our farmers grow young cabbage, onions, asparagus, radishes – all Ukrainian,”
– says the expert.
Will spring affect prices?
As demand for young potatoes and greens increases, we can expect prices to rise. Okhrimenko also explains that growing such products requires additional costs: heating greenhouses, preparing the soil, using fertilizers, etc. This affects the final cost of the product.
“Yes, the price is high, because the greenhouse needs to be heated, but the demand will grow at a frantic pace. The trade reacts very quickly to this,”
– he notes.
Today is the right time
The situation on the potato market is currently ambiguous. On the one hand, there is a reduction in the price of old potatoes, but prices in supermarkets are still high. On the other hand, the growing demand for young potatoes may lead to further changes in prices in the direction of higher prices. In addition, the import factor and weather conditions will also play an important role in shaping the market in the near future. Therefore, for those who like this product, now is a good time to actively purchase and consume it.
