Sanctions are paralyzing: only 7 passenger aircraft have been produced in Russia since 2022
13 December 2024 08:49
Russia’s aviation industry has faced serious challenges in resuming production of passenger aircraft after Western sanctions were imposed in 2022. According to data published by the Russian service of the BBC, only seven Sukhoi SuperJet 100 passenger planes, completed from pre-war billets, have been built since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, reports "Komersant Ukrainian".
In June 2022, the Russian government approved the Comprehensive Program for the Development of the Air Transport Industry until 2030, which included ambitious production plans: 14 aircraft by the end of 2022, 25 in 2023, and 69 by the end of 2024. However, these plans were repeatedly adjusted, and the production launch dates were postponed. In the fall of 2023, the program was revised to set a new target of 45 passenger aircraft by the end of 2024. In the spring of 2024, the start of production was again postponed for several years.
The main obstacles were problems with import substitution of components, in particular engines. The PD-8 engine is being developed for the SSJ-NEW, whose certification was originally planned for 2023, then postponed to the end of 2024, and is now expected in early 2025. The MS-21, originally equipped with American Pratt & Whitney engines, now needs Russian PD-14s, which have already been certified, but the aircraft itself has yet to be certified with these engines.
In addition to the new models, Russia is trying to resume production of Soviet aircraft such as the Il-96-300 and Tu-214. However, these projects are facing difficulties due to obsolescence and technical obsolescence, as well as the need to restore production lines and supply chains.
Experts note that the simultaneous implementation of several aviation programs exceeds the capabilities of the Russian aviation industry, given the limited human, technical, and time resources. In addition, the development and production of civilian aircraft is complicated by the priority production of military aircraft in the current geopolitical situation.
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What’s next
The Russian press is actively discussing measures that could help overcome the aviation crisis. One of the proposals is to allow foreign airlines to operate domestic flights in Russia. Such a mechanism, known as “cabotage transportation,” was suggested by Transport Minister Roman Starovoit as possible in cooperation with friendly countries such as Kazakhstan. However, the idea has drawn criticism: experts say that despite solving logistical problems, profits from such flights will go abroad, and foreign companies risk falling under Western sanctions.
Another option is to purchase aircraft from countries that do not support sanctions. The most realistic partner is China, but its C919 airliner has proven to be even more dependent on Western components than the Russian Superjet. Experts emphasize that each Western part requires a manufacturer’s permit, which is almost impossible to obtain in the current environment. Thus, Russia is likely to focus on maintaining the suitability of its existing fleet of foreign aircraft. However, non-standard solutions will also emerge: for example, Aeroflot plans to transfer five Boeing 737-800 freighters to its subsidiary Pobeda Airlines to be used as donor aircraft.
Experts recognize that large-scale production of new airplanes in Russia is unlikely under sanctions. In their opinion, the crisis can only be overcome through a political settlement of the war in Ukraine, which will gradually lift the restrictions and restore trade ties with the West.
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