A weak December and a stronger quarter: is Italian industry emerging from recession?
11 February 17:12
Industrial production in Italy fell by 0.4% in December compared to the previous month, but data for the end of the year indicate a possible easing of the prolonged downturn in the manufacturing sector.
This was reported by Reuters , citing data from the national statistics agency ISTAT, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
What happened in December
The monthly decline in production was slightly less than analysts had expected. A Reuters poll of 13 economists predicted a 0.5% decline after a 1.5% increase in November.
According to ISTAT, the main factor behind the December decline was a reduction in the production of consumer goods and intermediate products. This decline outweighed growth in the energy and investment goods sectors.
Quarterly dynamics — a positive signal
Despite a weak December, industrial production in the EU’s third-largest economy grew by 0.9% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months.
Economists see this as a possible sign of stabilization after a prolonged period of decline in production.
Annual growth and first signs of recovery
On an annual basis, taking into account the number of working days, industrial production in December grew by 3.2% after a 1.4% increase in November.
Analysts note that this may indicate the beginning of a gradual recovery, although one month of positive dynamics does not mean the end of the industry’s structural problems.
Year-end results: the decline is slowing down
According to ISTAT, Italy’s industrial production fell by 0.2% in 2025. This is significantly less than in previous years, with declines of 4% in 2024 and 2% in 2023.
Thus, the pace of decline in the manufacturing sector has slowed significantly.
Mixed signals at the beginning of the year
At the same time, other indicators remain subdued. A survey of purchasing managers showed that in January, production in Italy declined for the second month in a row, although the rate of decline was slower than in December.
This indicates that the recovery, if it is beginning, remains fragile.
Italy’s economy grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter and by 0.8% year-on-year. These figures exceeded market expectations and strengthened forecasts for 2026.
According to preliminary estimates by ISTAT, the country’s GDP grew by 0.7% in 2025, taking into account working days.
