Article 5 for Ukraine: What is known about security guarantees in Trump’s “peace plan”?

21 November 08:00

US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine contains a security guarantee modeled on NATO’s Article 5. The document obliges the United States and European allies to consider Russia’s attack on Ukraine as an attack on the entire “transatlantic community.” The relevant draft agreement, obtained by Axios, is the first time Trump has agreed to offer Kyiv such a large-scale security shield, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports

Why this is important

Trump’s plan provides for major concessions to Ukraine, but at the same time offers an unprecedented guarantee, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls his key priority in peace negotiations.

What the document contains

In parallel with the main 28-point plan, which was presented by US Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll at a meeting with Zelenskyy, the US side provided a separate draft agreement on security guarantees.

The main provisions:

any “significant, deliberate, and sustained” attack by Russia on Ukraine will be considered a threat to the peace of the entire transatlantic area;
The United States and its allies will respond accordingly, including the use of military force;
the guarantee will be valid for 10 years with the possibility of extension;
the document bears the signatures of Ukraine, the United States, the EU, NATO, and… Russia.

The White House confirmed the authenticity of the document, but noted that it still needs to be discussed with Europe.

American officials call the proposal a “great achievement” for Ukraine.

What is required of Zelenskyy

At the same time, Zelenskyy has a project in his hands that

requires Ukraine to agree to the transfer of additional territories to Russia beyond those currently occupied;
provides for Russia’s de facto return to world politics – lifting of sanctions and amnesty for war crimes;
establishes a demilitarized zone;
freezes the lines of control in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia;
limits the size of the Ukrainian army to 600 thousand troops (currently about 800-850 thousand).

At the same time, Ukraine receives a security guarantee for the first time, which effectively equates it to a NATO ally.

Political risks

Trump may face a wave of criticism from his supporters in the “America First” movement, as the agreement will actually oblige the United States to enter the war in the event of a new Russian attack on Ukraine.

What’s next

According to Axios:

the document has already been handed over to President Zelensky;
Russia has allegedly been informed about the project;
European partners have not yet given their consent – the text may change.

A senior White House official said that Russia has been briefed on the project, but it is unclear whether President Vladimir Putin’s signature will ultimately be required.

Draft text

This Framework establishes the conditions for a ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and provides security guarantees modeled on the principles of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, adapted to the circumstances of this conflict and the interests of the United States and its European partners.

The United States reaffirms that a significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack by the Russian Federation across the agreed ceasefire line into the territory of Ukraine should be considered an attack that threatens the peace and security of the transatlantic community. In such a case, the President of the United States, exercising constitutional authority and in immediate consultation with Ukraine, NATO, and European partners, shall determine the measures necessary to restore security.

These measures may include armed forces, intelligence and logistical assistance, economic and diplomatic actions, and other steps deemed appropriate. A joint assessment mechanism with NATO and Ukraine will assess any alleged violation.

NATO Allies, including France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, and Finland, reaffirm that Ukraine’s security is integral to European stability and commit to acting in concert with the United States in responding to any alleged violation, ensuring a unified and credible deterrent posture.

This Framework shall enter into force upon signature and shall remain in effect for ten years, renewable by mutual agreement. A Joint Monitoring Commission, led by the European partners and with the participation of the United States, will monitor their implementation.

Signed: