The global economy is on the verge of a new shock: experts warn of a major crisis. How it will affect Ukraine
18 September 19:20
ANALYSIS FROM 
More and more analysts are sounding the alarm: the global financial system is showing alarming signals. The probability of a global recession has exceeded 60%, which experts consider to be an extremely dangerous level. The current events in many aspects resemble the situation before the economic collapse of 2008, according to The Wall.
Key threats of concern
Economists point to a number of key risks that could trigger a chain reaction in the economy:
Stagnation in the US construction sector. The level of permits for new housing has fallen to its lowest level in recent years. A similar trend was recorded on the eve of the 2008 financial disaster.
Rising lending costs. Central banks in leading countries are already tightening monetary policy. As a result, access to finance is becoming more difficult, which hinders business development and investment activity.
Trade tensions between superpowers. The conflict between the United States and China is escalating, and increasingly high customs barriers are having a negative impact on global trade. Such scenarios have repeatedly provoked economic downturns in the past.
High risk of recession. Forecasts range from 60 to 80%, which indicates that businesses are seriously preparing for a possible downturn.
Lessons from the past: parallels with 2008
Experts emphasize that the then crisis began with problems in the US real estate sector. Excessive lending and banking sector instability quickly spread to the entire global economy. Today’s situation has many similarities with those events: vulnerable sectors, rising debt burdens, and financial instability.
Possible consequences for the global economy
If the negative scenario materializes, the global economy may face the following challenges
- a decline in demand in trade and industry;
- collapses in financial markets;
- decrease in household incomes and reduced purchasing power;
- loss of foreign exchange earnings in exporting countries.
Why the new crisis could be protracted
Unlike the situation in 2008, the possibilities for financial support are now significantly limited. Commercial banks are tightening lending conditions, and governments have fewer resources for large-scale anti-crisis programs. This means that the new economic downturn could last longer and be deeper.
The combination of several negative factors – weakness in the real estate market, geo-economic conflicts, high-cost loans and debt pressure – creates an extremely risky environment. Analysts are unanimous: the likelihood of a large-scale crisis is growing.
Businesses, governments and citizens should prepare now – 2026 could be a serious test for the entire planet.
“A new crisis awaits us, and this time it is of American origin”
The global economy may face another crisis, which, unlike 2008, has a completely different nature and depth. This was stated by political scientist, political expert and managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group Taras Zagorodnyi.
Yes, a new crisis is quite possible. But it will be significantly different from the one that took place in 2008,” said Zagorodnyi.
According to the expert, the current problems at the global level are largely provoked by the United States itself.
“The US created the preconditions for this crisis itself – through trade wars started by Donald Trump, limiting China’s influence, destroying logistics chains and markets. This is an artificial destabilization of the global system,” he explained.
America wants to drown China in a crisis
Zagorodny suggests that the United States is deliberately pushing China to economic collapse in order to curb its growth and geopolitical influence.
Trump, as I see it, wants to provoke an economic crisis in China. They are trying to artificially drive China into a recession by limiting its export capabilities. And in Beijing, the situation is not very rosy right now, with youth unemployment reaching 20%.
At the same time, the expert points to the cynicism of the US approach: Americans believe that the crisis will hit the whole world, but that capital will eventually return to them.
The logic is as follows: if a global crisis begins, capital will flee to a safe haven, i.e. the United States. And America plans to reindustrialize with these resources. Yes, the Americans will be a little bit “hurt,” but others will be worse off,” Zagorodny added.
According to the political scientist, the economic crisis can provoke not only financial turmoil but also new conflicts.
If China’s economy starts to collapse, the authorities may try to shift attention from internal problems to external ones, i.e. geopolitical threats. This is a very realistic scenario.
The crisis, according to the expert, may be the result of long-term economic cycles, in particular, the so-called “Kondratieff waves.”
This is not just a financial failure. It is a profound transformation of the economy. Approximately once every 40 years, all productive forces are restructured. And now we are on the verge of such a break,” he explained.
According to Zagorodny, the development of artificial intelligence and automation plays a significant role in this.
Mass automation means the loss of millions of jobs. People without jobs means a drop in purchasing power, which means a decline in demand and production. And I don’t see any effective solutions to this problem even in the most developed countries,” the expert said.
Russian oil is another risk for the global market
Zagorodniy also drew attention to the risks associated with Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s oil infrastructure.
When, for example, the SBU attacked the Primorsk port, the price of oil immediately went up. This is a signal to the market that Russian oil may disappear. This is already a serious problem for the global energy sector,” he emphasized.
Zagorodniy believes that the world is entering a period of global instability, and everyone – from governments to ordinary citizens – must be prepared for shocks.
Those who want to survive must act. And act wisely. The world may enter a phase of protracted turbulence in the coming years,” he concluded.
“So, the world is on the verge of a major economic transformation. The possible crisis may have not only a financial but also a geopolitical dimension. Ukraine, as a part of the global market, will not be able to stand aside, so strategic preparation, business flexibility and proactive policy should become a priority now.
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