World oil prices are declining: OPEC and Kurdistan put pressure on the market together
29 September 2025 10:04
Oil prices declined on Monday after Kurdistan (Iraq) resumed crude oil exports through Turkey after a more than two-year break. An additional factor in the decline was the information about OPEC’s plans to increase production in November, which will increase global supply. This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to Reuters.
Brent crude oil futures fell by 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $69.79 per barrel as of the morning. The day before, on Friday, they closed at the highest level since July 31.
US WTI also dropped 43 cents, or 0.7%, to $65.29 per barrel, losing most of Friday’s growth.
“Fears of new production growth are holding back gains, but the short-term outlook leaves the market in a tense state at the start of the week,” explained Michael McCarthy, CEO of Moomoo Australia and New Zealand, an investment platform.
Kurdistan exports oil to Turkey again
On Saturday, oil flowed through the pipeline from semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey for the first time in two and a half years. This became possible after an interim agreement between the federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and foreign companies operating in the region.
According to the agency, the supply volumes will amount to 180-190 thousand barrels per day, which will be exported through the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Subsequently, exports are expected to gradually increase to 230 thousand barrels per day, which will help return some Kurdish oil to the world market.
The United States has actively supported the resumption of exports, as it will help stabilize prices and increase supplies globally.
OPEC plans to increase production
According to Reuters, the OPEC countries (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies) are planning to approve another increase in production by at least 137 thousand barrels per day at their next meeting on Sunday. The rise in oil prices is encouraging the cartel to gradually increase production to regain market share.
However, according to experts, OPEC’s actual production is still about 500 thousand barrels per day below the established quotas, so expectations of a surplus supply in the market have not yet been realized.
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets warn that “with OPEC’s reserve capacity declining, the risks of geopolitical surprises are increasing in October.” In their opinion, although the main topic of the market in the summer was the threat of an oil glut in the fourth quarter of 2025, conflicts involving Russia and Iran are becoming increasingly influential.
Ukrainian attacks on the Russian energy sector affected the market
Last week, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 4%, the largest weekly jump since June. The reason for this was Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and export terminals, which reduced fuel supplies from Russia.
In response, Russia launched a large-scale attack on Kyiv and other regions of Ukraine on Sunday, one of the largest attacks since the start of the full-scale war.
Iran under sanctions again
An additional factor of tension was the UN’s decision to renew the arms embargo on Iran and other sanctions related to the country’s nuclear program. This step was initiated by European countries, and Tehran promised a “tough response.”
Current situation on the market
As of Monday morning (03:30 GMT), Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.5% to $69.79 per barrel, while WTI fell by 0.7% to $65.29 per barrel, returning to the levels of early September.
