Ankara’s Secret Decision: Will Russia be able to find new ways to supply military components?
25 October 2024 14:49
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Turkey has privately blocked the export of US military goods to Russia, responding to Washington’s warning of “serious consequences” if the shipments continue. The ban covers 50 items of Western products, including electronic components such as microchips, remote systems, processors and memory cards – all of which are critical to Russia’s military-industrial complex – as well as machine tools and other high-tech equipment. However, whether such a ban will really hit Russia and, most importantly, why the Turkish leader is trying to smooth out sharp corners and create a picture of good relations with Russia, "Komersant Ukrainian" has investigated
According to the Financial Times, in the first year after the Russian invasion, Turkish exports of such goods increased 12-fold and reached $38 million in December 2022. However, since the beginning of 2024, this figure has been gradually declining, and as of August, exports of military goods to Russia fell to $4.1 million. The changes are due, in particular, to the lengthening of logistics chains that now include Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
There are still ways to supply military components to Russia
In an exclusive commentary for Kommersant Ukrayinsky, political analyst and managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group Taras Zagorodny commented on Turkey’s secret decision to stop exports of US military goods to Russia. According to him, this decision can be explained by the pressure from the US, which is due to its strategic interest to limit the supply of important goods for the Russian military industry.
“Turkey is a NATO member and a key partner of the United States, which allows Washington to influence its economic steps. Given its open economy, Turkey has limited room for manoeuvre and is forced to make concessions under pressure from its allies. In the case of military goods, the US can use its influence on Turkey through economic and political levers to limit its trade with Russia,” Zagorodniy explains,
– Zagorodnyi explains.
However, according to the political scientist, this restriction will not be a significant obstacle for Russia, as many of the necessary military components can be obtained from other sources.
“It is important to understand that many components that can be used in military equipment, such as microchips or electronic elements, are not unique to the defence industry. They are often available in the public domain, and microprocessors, for example, can be found in household appliances such as washing machines or other electronic devices. Russia has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to circumvent sanctions using such approaches,”
– said Taras Zagorodnyi.
The expert also believes that there are other channels through which Russia can obtain the necessary components, and Turkey is just one of the possible links in this chain.
“Russia has established supply routes through third countries such as Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan. Therefore, even an export ban by Turkey is unlikely to radically stop the flow of necessary components,”
– Zagorodnyi summed up.
Thus, the political scientist notes, Turkey’s restrictions may be a symbolic step to confirm its commitment to the policy of its allies, but they have a limited impact on the actual provision of Russia with the necessary goods for the military industry.
Erdogan sees Putin as a peacemaker
Moreover, Erdogan made a statement on the ceasefire in Ukraine. The Turkish president met with the Russian president to discuss Ukraine, including the possibility of a ceasefire and the exchange of prisoners. The Turkish leader told journalists about this, according to Russian media.
According to Erdogan, during the meeting, he felt Putin’s desire for a stable cessation of hostilities.
“We have seen that Putin is also committed to a sustainable ceasefire,”
– said the Turkish president.
However,Putin’s desire for peace is accompanied by a build-up of manpower, including troops from the DPRK. The presence of which Putin also confirmed at the BRICS summit. Commenting on the satellite images, which, according to analysts, indicate the movement of Korean troops, Putin said that satellites are a serious thing, if there are images, they show something, without denying the presence of the North Korean military. To justify the legitimacy of the North Korean military’s presence in Russia, the dictator referred to Article 4 of the Comprehensive Partnership Agreement between Russia and the DPRK. It refers to “immediate assistance by all available means” if one of the countries is subjected to an armed attack.
By the way, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has already confirmed the arrival of the first units of the DPRK Armed Forces in the Kursk region, where they are likely to join combat missions.
Does Turkey have a chance to mediate between Ukraine and Russia?
Turkey is actively mediating in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, while seeking to maintain constructive relations with both sides. Ankara, a NATO member, supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity by supplying weapons and drones, but does not join sanctions against Russia. While maintaining close economic and energy ties with Moscow, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also maintains a dialogue with the West, seeking to strengthen his international mediation.
For example, Erdogan has repeatedly stressed the importance of a peaceful settlement, offering mediation efforts, but at the same time stressing the importance of continuing dialogue with Moscow.
Erdogan’s “dual” mediation gives him weight in the international arena, allowing Turkey to remain one of the few channels for negotiations, but also raises questions about his true intentions.
Author: Anastasia Fedor
