Trump has a clear economic logic – he wants to destroy the current trade system that harms the US, – economist

3 September 14:21

OPINION

Ivan Us, Chief Consultant of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, PhD in Economics, in an interview for "Komersant Ukrainian" shared his vision of global changes in the world economy and trade, the role of the United States, China, India and the EU, as well as the potential repetition of the 1980s scenario, when the collapse of oil prices was one of the factors in the collapse of the USSR.

Everything is heading for a repeat of the 1980s – oil markets and geopolitics

According to Ivan Usa, the current actions of the United States, in particular Donald Trump’s policy, could lead to a repeat of the economic scenario of the 1980s:

“We know that the deadlines are constantly being reduced: first 50 days, then 10-12, and then we hear that a 25% duty has been imposed on India. Against this backdrop, the Gulf countries are ready to quickly increase oil production,”

– the expert noted.

He recalls that in 1986, world oil prices fell by 63% in the first half of the year, and a barrel cost $9.45. Similar trends are observed today:

“Back then, the market crash contributed to the collapse of the USSR. Today, the situation may repeat itself-the question is who will be the next victim of global redistribution.”

Us emphasizes that Trump has a clear economic logic – he wants to destroy the current trading system, which, in his opinion, is harmful to the United States:

“Trump is not just acting – he is destroying. His goal is to rewrite the rules of global trade so that they work exclusively in America’s favor. And, by the way, not only the United States – the current world order is also harmful to Europe,”

– Us said.

According to the expert, Trump’s ultimatum is a signal not to Putin, but primarily to China, India, and the EU:

“This is a signal: either you give up Russian energy carriers or you will receive duties. The EU, China and India all had to make a choice. The former chose to cooperate with the United States, while China stayed away.”

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The signing of the EU-US agreement: the beginning of a new world order

According to Usa, the recent signing of the EU-US economic agreement was a turning point:

“It has changed the entire logic of global trade. A real tectonic shift. After that, it became possible to increase duties against countries that buy Russian energy carriers,”

– the expert noted.

Earlier, Europeans were not ready for such a step, but the United States put them in the right conditions. Us also commented on the assumption that China will be able to compensate Russia for the losses from the new sanctions:

“Politically, China doesn’t want to do this, and it has already stated this explicitly. India, on the other hand, has said it is ready. But this does not mean that it will actually do it,”

– he emphasized.

According to the expert, India has every chance to become the main beneficiary of the changes if it manages to attract investment from China:

“Trump is pressuring companies to move production from China to India. Why? Because it is the only country with a larger population than China – more than 1.5 billion people. This is strategically beneficial for the United States.”

Another significant moment was the failed summit between China and the EU:

“Do you remember the summit that was supposed to last two days, but turned into a one-day meeting with the lowest representation? This is a clear signal: Europe will no longer be ‘sitting on the tightrope’. It has made a choice in favor of the United States,”

– explained Ivan Us.

Will the duties become a “stick” that will turn into a “carrot”?

Us believes that Trump’s policy on duties can be not only punitive but also stimulating:

“Yes, this 25% duty is a stick. But then it can turn into a carrot. This is a motivation for India: if you really give up Russian oil, you will get preferences,”

– the expert believes.

Summarizing, Ivan Us noted that the current US economic policy, in particular under Trump’s leadership, is an attempt to destroy the old model and build a new one for American interests. And all other players will have to choose a side:

“There is very little neutral space left in the world. Either with America or against it. But being “a little bit with everyone” will not work anymore.”

Thus, the world is on the verge of a new economic bipolarity. Trump is not just revising US foreign economic policy, he is forcing all other players to make up their minds. Either you are with America and get access to the benefits of the new trade architecture. Or you stay with China, Russia, or the “third position” and prepare for tariff pressure and isolation. Europe, despite much hesitation, has made its choice. India is at a crossroads. China is trying to stay away, but this position is becoming less and less sustainable. Just like in the 1980s, the economic map of the world is changing under the influence of energy prices, but now this process has not only economic but also global and civilizational consequences.

Read more about why russia’s economic indicators are a mirage, how sanctions really affect the enemy’s economy, whether the russian economy will survive the fall of 2025, and other topics in the interview with Ivan Us on our YouTube channel.