Trump intervened in the oil market: analysts warn of $100 per barrel
23 June 2025 23:16
On June 23, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump made a public statement that caused a significant resonance in the global energy market. In his post on the Truth Social platform, Trump called on American energy companies and government agencies to prevent oil prices from rising, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
His statement came amid rising tensions in the Middle East after a series of US and Israeli air strikes on Iran, which significantly affected the expectations of oil market participants.
Everyone, keep oil prices low. I’m watching! You are playing into the hands of the enemy. Don’t do it!” Trump wrote.
The American leader accompanied his message with another slogan: “Drill, baby, drill!!! And I mean NOW!”, actually calling for an immediate expansion of oil production in the United States.
These words have become a kind of signal for the US energy sector, especially amid global fears of possible disruptions in oil supplies from the Middle East, Reuters writes. These fears were caused by reports of Iran’s possible blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which more than 20% of the world’s oil exports are transported. According to official data, some tankers have already begun to change the route, avoiding direct passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a short-term decline in traffic.
Read also: Blocking the Strait of Hormuz: will oil really be at $300 per barrel
Against the backdrop of the events described above, Brent crude oil prices jumped to a five-month high of about $81.40 per barrel, and US WTI approached $77. However, after Trump’s publications, the market reacted with restraint: quotes gradually fell to $76-77 per barrel of Brent, which experts explain by the short-term psychological effect of the statement and expectations of increased domestic production in the United States.
The U.S. Department of Energy, responding to a request from journalists, confirmed that it is working on an enhanced analysis of the possibilities of expanding drilling on federal lands and private territories, although it has not officially announced a change in policy.
We’re on it, a short but telling comment that confirmed that the government is closely monitoring market dynamics and is ready to intervene if necessary.
Against this backdrop, analysts from leading financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, warn that if the conflict in the Middle East escalates and the Strait of Hormuz is actually blocked, oil prices could rise to $100-120 per barrel. Such a scenario would not only increase the cost of gasoline and diesel in the United States, but would also have global implications, including higher prices for goods, logistics, and overall inflation.
Already, the average price of gasoline in the United States has begun to rise slowly to $3.30 per gallon, which has become noticeable to American consumers. However, according to experts, this growth is still controlled.
Trump’s position on oil prices is not only an economic message, but also a political move. As the US presidential election in 2026 approaches, the former president is once again raising the issue of energy independence and the role of the US as a major oil producer. His rhetoric appeals to voters who support the development of the traditional energy sector and demand lower energy prices.
As a result, Trump’s statement of June 23, 2025, became an important event for the energy market, in which geopolitics, economics, and domestic political struggles intertwined. Despite the limited impact on prices in the short term, calls for production expansion could have a real impact in the medium and long term.
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