Three scenarios for the end of the war. Spring and summer of 2025 will be decisive
9 September 2024 18:59
ANALYSIS FROM 
It is time to discuss ways to end the war. Such theses are increasingly being voiced by various politicians. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, for example, recently suggested inviting Russia to the second Peace Summit.
In an interview with ZDF, he said that he had a “very confidential conversation” with Zelenskyy and that the Ukrainian president also agreed that discussing ways to end the war was timely.
“I think now is the moment when we have to discuss how we can end the war and achieve peace faster than it seems possible now,” Olaf Scholz
At the same time, La Repubblica publishes an article entitled: “Scholz is working on a peace plan to bring Russia to the negotiating table. “The hypothesis is that Kyiv will agree to territorial concessions. And, they say, it will be something like the new Minsk agreements.
“Stunned by the devastating election results in Thuringia and Saxony and haunted by increasingly acute rumours that a possible defeat on 22 September in Brandenburg could force him to take a step back, the chancellor decided to play the Ukrainian card to get out of the corner” – La Repubblica
Politicians, experts and Western media have repeatedly voiced scenarios for ending the war. Ukraine’s position is unchanged – to return to the 1991 borders. So it’s hard to believe that Zelenskyy will do something similar to the Minsk agreements.
Moreover, when asked by a journalist whether Ukraine could agree to the so-called “borders before 24 February 2022” (i.e., giving up Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions occupied before the full-scale invasion), the Office of the President of Ukraine clearly answered “No”. According to Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, there is no way to agree on such borders. I am sure that any agreements on Russia’s terms will mean the end of Ukraine as it is today.
"Komersant Ukrainian" has identified several possible ways to end the war in Ukraine.
Scenario one. Ukraine’s victory on the battlefield
The scenario voiced by the President of Ukraine from the first days of the full-scale invasion is undoubtedly the fairest for us. However, phrases such as “helping Ukraine to be in a strong position before negotiations begin” are confusing: do our Western partners really want Russia to fail, and what does “a strong position for Ukraine” mean to US State Department spokesman John Kirby?
For Ukraine to win on the battlefield, we need Western weapons and the lifting of restrictions on their use. European politicians understand this.
- Paris was one of the first to call for allowing Kyiv to use Western weapons to strike Russian territory. At a joint press conference with Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron showed a map of the fighting in the Kharkiv region to prove to his allies the importance of lifting restrictions on the use of Western weapons for Ukrainian armed forces to strike Russia.
- In May 2024, the United Kingdom announced that it would allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to strike the aggressor country with British weapons.
- London’s position was supported by the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden and the Czech Republic
“These restrictions need to be lifted because it is legal and legitimate for Ukrainians to defend themselves, even when attacking Russian territory. After all, they cannot box with one hand tied behind their backs,” Chief of the Czech General Staff Karel Rzegka
- Warsaw has also joined the list. Poland’s deputy defence minister assured that Kyiv should not have any restrictions
Why are other countries hesitating? Apparently, as was the case with Leopards, long-range missiles, Western countries are waiting for permission from the US.
Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies, in an exclusive commentary , notes that politicians’ statements about finding ways to end the war and providing more weapons to Ukraine coincide.
“A lot of time can pass between the start of any so-called negotiation process and the immediate end of active hostilities. And when we talk about helping Ukraine and providing as many weapons as possible, this is absolutely the right approach. And we expect the decisive campaign in the fighting to take place in the spring and summer of 2025,” Musienko said
Musienko is confident that after the summer campaign of 2025, the conditions for peace talks will be outlined. This is a long process, and the parameters of the negotiations need to be set now, explains the Head of the Centre for Military Legal Studies. Therefore, we should not look for it in the words of Western politicians.
Scenario two: Putin loses power
In addition to victory on the battlefield, the American magazine Foreign Affairs sees another scenario for the end of the war. The journalists are confident that as soon as the Russian dictator loses power, the war will begin to end. Ben Hodges, a former US Army commander, made a similar statement. He says that sanctions against Russian oligarchs could be a key factor in the destruction of the Putin regime.
“At some point, the oligarchs, the inner circle, must get tired of all the restrictions imposed on them, including their wealth. At some point, they will say: “I cannot go to my mistress on the Adriatic. I can’t send my kids to school in London or Stanford anymore. And then I think something will potentially happen.” – Ben Hodges
However, such a process, if it happens, will be unexpected, as it was during Prigozhin’s rebellion. Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko assures that it is unlikely to be known in advance, which means that we should not hope for the overthrow of the Putin regime.
Scenario three. Donald Trump’s plan
Unlikely, but theoretically possible. No one has ever spoken so decisively about ending the war in 24 hours as former US President Donald. But some of his theses, such as the reduction in the price of oil, make sense, says political scientist Fesenko.
Trump’s plan is to cut energy prices by half or more within 12 months of taking office.
“Putin will not be able to fight with oil at $40. Literally the same night as it becomes known that I have won, I will call two people: Putin and Zelensky. We will make a deal within 24 hours,” Donald Trump
Yes, in 24 hours, Russian troops will not leave the territory of Ukraine beyond the 1991 borders, and the decline in oil prices is a process that will affect not only the United States and Russia. However, Donald Trump’s rise to power scares even Putin himself, because there are many unknowns behind this figure.
The terms of the victory scenario are being written now
Whatever the scenario, its terms will depend on the battlefield, says expert Oleksandr Musienko.
“The conditions are being written by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield right now. Two months ago, Ukraine was in the same position, in particular, we did not have such a strong trump card as the Kursk operation. In six months, we may be in a completely different position, when we may be able to counterattack and recapture certain defensive lines,” Musienko said
Musienko concludes that sanctions, pressure, and the oil price are all necessary. However, everything will be decided on the battlefield.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
