CBR records deepest drop in manufacturing activity since 2022: economy enters stagnation phase
21 August 19:51
In August 2025, the Central Bank of Russia released data on the state of business: the index of production activity fell to -5.4 points, the lowest since the end of 2022.
A survey of more than 15,000 companies showed that output estimates have been falling for the third month in a row, indicating a systemic cooling of the economy.
This was reported by the Center for Countering Disinformation, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Sectors showing weakness
The largest drops were recorded in the following industries:
- Industry – a decline in production due to lack of investment and high costs.
- Construction – reduction in new projects, reduced demand for infrastructure, according to the Center for Countering Disinformation.
- Transportation trade – a decrease in transportation volumes, a decline in logistics activity.
Military Spending and Economic Stagnation
Over the past three years, Russia has spent more than 20 trillion rubles (almost $248 billion) on military needs. This record spending has not been able to compensate for the overall economic slowdown. In the second quarter of 2025, GDP growth was only 1.1%, while in 2024 it was 4.1%.
The military-industrial complexis losing momentum
Even the military-industrial complex, which used to be the engine of economic growth, is beginning to show signs of exhaustion.
The reasons:
- High key policy rate, which restrains lending.
- Labor shortages due to mobilization and demographic losses.
- Inability to invest in new production facilities.
Signs of a systemic crisis
For the first time, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has recognized that the country is facing a growing systemic crisis, which the Kremlin is trying to hide behind official reports on “stability.” Economic indicators show deep structural problems that are not being addressed by current measures.
Hidden unemployment
Earlier, the Center for Countering Disinformation reported that hidden unemployment is growing in Russia – employees formally remain at work, but in fact do not receive a salary or work part-time. This is another indicator of the degradation of the labor market.
Overall, the Russian economy is showing signs of exhaustion after a long period of militarization. Lack of reforms, isolation from global markets and internal imbalances create preconditions for a protracted crisis.
