“It’s just a scenario, but…”: the EU assesses the risks of a new wave of refugees from Ukraine
6 March 2025 08:50
European politicians are increasingly discussing the possibility of a new massive influx of Ukrainian refugees in the event of an escalation of the war and the termination of military aid from the United States. German Interior Minister Nancy Feser said this, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports citing Politico.
At the same time, European politicians are told to ensure that the distribution of new refugees across Europe is “fair”, that is, even across countries.
“If Putin escalates this war even further and US support disappears, and if this leads to a large-scale refugee movement, we need a mandatory distribution of Ukrainian refugees across the European Union in accordance with a fair mechanism,”
– Feser said during a briefing on Wednesday.
The scenario is still hypothetical
According to Eurostat, as of December 2024, more than 4.3 million Ukrainians have been granted temporary protection in European countries. Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic have received the bulk of refugees so far. However, in the event of a new large-scale wave, the distribution of Ukrainians among EU countries should change, Feather emphasized.
At the same time, she noted that she does not expect a sharp increase in the number of refugees, and the issue of their redistribution is only a “hypothetical scenario” being discussed by ministers.
“Germany will support Ukraine for as long as this horrific attack by Putin lasts,”
– the minister emphasized.
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“Integration” in Austrian style
EU politicians were quick to express support for Ukraine after reports of conflict at the White House, where US President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance got into a verbal altercation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
However, the issue of Ukrainian refugees remains a hot topic for Europe, as many countries are trying to limit migration flows. During the EU meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, much attention was paid to deportations, and some states are seeking to revise their migration policies.
In particular, Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner said he would use the meeting in Brussels to officially inform the European Commission about the decision of the new Austrian government to stop family reunification of Ukrainian refugees. According to him, Austria “has clearly taken in more [refugees] than many other countries,” and now the government wants to focus on the integration of those already in the country.
“That is why we are stopping family reunification,”
– Karner said.
Temporary protection as an obstacle
According to official statistics, in absolute terms, Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic have received the most Ukrainian refugees – each of these countries has granted temporary protection to about a million Ukrainians. However, in terms of population, the Baltic States, Slovakia, and Ireland also had a significant burden.
The temporary protection introduced by the EU for Ukrainians gives them the right to work, live and study in the host countries. However, human rights organizations note that the temporary status of refugees creates difficulties with their integration into European society.
Factors that influence the choice of a country for Ukrainian refugees include proximity to Ukraine, language features, support from local communities, and information on social benefits and assistance.
